Small and cheap

This was an eye-opener for me.

I am a member of an interactive blog, TheBackFence, and the discussion has lately turned to the question of nuclear disarmament. One of the other members is Peter Zimmerman, who is a physicist and arms-control expert. He is a former Chief Scientist for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

He is careful not to reveal classified material, but he has shared some information that was quite surprising and a bit frightening to me. Here's a sample:

Let me tell you three dirty little secrets about nuclear weapons, that don't show up in most of the pro and con arguments:

1. Nuclear weapons are cheap, really cheap. A simple nuclear bomb probably doesn't cost 10% of the fighter-bomber needed to carry it. Well under $10M. The plutonium would cost much less than $1M to make in a government reactor.

2. Nuclear weapons are incredibly small and light. I have picked up full size/full weight dummy weapons used for training with my two hands and not had much trouble. Since we have 155 mm nuclear artillery rounds, it's pretty obvious that you can make a nuclear weapon that's less than six inches in diameter. You have to get pictures of Fat Man and Little Boy out of your mind; nukes aren't like that any more!

3. Nuclear weapons are very simple to make. I've written articles and co-wrote a novel about nuclear terror in which small groups build there own starting only with the uranium or plutonium. Most designs are very fault tolerant.

From this it follows that there are a lot of people who know how nuclear weapons are built, and that modern weapons are incredibly easy to hide and hard to find. And further, this tells us that if we do sign a treaty banning nukes, somebody somewhere will keep a few or few dozen in a mineshaft somewhere, and we'll never find them.

The amazing thing is that nuclear weapons have existed since 1945 and never been used again after our bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It's even more amazing, given how small and relatively cheap these modern versions are. It certainly changes the ease with which they could be smuggled in or out of a country.

Ralph