I have been so dismissive of Newt and have such an intense dislike of him that I have perhaps not recognized the real meaning of his surge in the polls, preferring instead to see it as just his turn to be flavor of the week.
Now he has edged ahead of Romney in four national polls. Careful analysis (by others) of the data shows that there may be some real substance to his rise. Whether this will overcome his very significant baggage remains to be seen.
Here are some sobering insights from the data:
1. His rise comes mainly from more conservative and Tea Party Republicans, while Romney's support comes from more moderate Republicans and Independents. In a Quinnipiac 1:1 pairing with Romney, Gingrich comes out 10 points ahead.
2. This suggests that if others (Bachmann, Cain, Perry, Santorum) drop out, Gingrich will be the main beneficiary. All of them divide the same voters that Newt is going after.
3. A major finding is that Gingrich comes out way ahead on questions about "knowledge" and "experience." On rating candidates as "most likely to understand complex issues," he leads Romney by 43% to 18%. And he leads Romney 36% to 20% as "most qualified to be Commander-in-Chief."'
4. All this suggests, to me anyway, that people are moving beyond the point where they like the "know-nothing," "say anything" bumblers. Maybe Cain's cluelessness about international relations was too much and made them realize that this is a complex world and the president needs to have some knowledge and experience. Gingrich seems to exude that, even when he is dead wrong.
This is getting scary. He could win the nomination. Aren't these the same people (conservatives and Tea Party-ers) for whom "social values" issues are most important? Of course, Newt has tailored his positions to appeal to this crowd (anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage, etc.) -- but REMEMBER, FOLKS, his personal life is anathema to your family values standards.
Here are the signs of hope:
1. The more people know about Newt, the less they like him. Curiously, as long as he's been around, I think he's going through something of the honeymoon period right now. Maybe his negatives will catch up with him again.
2. Newt's irrepressible excesses may do him in. As I wrote in a comment to my "Two Zingers" post yesterday, he's now proposing optional privitization of Social Security (which fell like a lead weight when Bush proposed it). And he's proclaimed that "child labor laws are stupid," and advocated firing the unionized school janitors and letting the kids do the work to earn money.
Think of Newt as a balloon (it's not too hard to imagine his figure floating above a Macy's parade) that gets over-inflated with his "cosmic egotism" to the point that it just explodes.
Ralph
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Silly me, I keep forgetting that Newt has found religion and reformed. Forthrightly admitting that he has done some things in the past that were not right, he has asked forgiveness and speaks the words of religious conversion and forgiveness.
ReplyDeleteWhy is that so hard for me to accept? Something about Newt's excess and his narcissism, his opportunistic flip-flopping, and his creepy self just do not have the ring of trustworthiness.
At the CNN/Heritage Foundation sponsored debate last night, Gingrich came across as the rational, ideas man of substance, with all the snarky, grumpiness held in abeyance. He didn't even complain about the questions, even complimenting Wolf Blitzer on one.
ReplyDeleteHe was wearing his gravitas mood and sounded by far the most knowledgeable and capable of the lot -- almost like the elder statesman he could have been. He projected the most maturity, the most confidence, the most knowledge, and at least on immigration, the most humane.
If I knew nothing of him but what I saw last night, I would pick him as by far the best candidate and be very worried about his beating Obama.
When asked to what he attributes his surge in polls (he edged to the top of four national polls this week), he said "People want substance."
I think that's right. He can certainly give the appearance of substance, and he proved last night he can turn in a performance of substance.
Two things may keep him from getting the nomination:
1. If social conservative voters remember that they don't like some of his positions and disapprove of his life and all its baggage.
2. His tendency to self-destruct through excess of his narcissism. He had already bordered on it with two statements yesterday: privatizing Social Security and saying child labor laws are stupid. But that Newt seemed left at home last night during the debate.