Monday, January 2, 2012

Last minute poll in Iowa

Public Policy Polling has released its latest automated poll taken over the past two days, and it confirms that Rick Santorum is indeed having the last minute surge he predicted.

There is a virtual 3 way tie: Paul 20%, Romney 19%, Santorum 18% -- all within the margin of error. Trailing are: Gingrinch 14%, Perry 10%, Bachmann 8%.

Nate Silver's polling analysis is similar: Paul 21.6%, Romney, 21.3%, Santorum 19.5%.

InTrade shows who people are betting will win: Romney 44%, Paul, 27.5%, Santorum 26.0% -- and Gingrich a mere 1.5%.

Santorum clearly has the momentum of the moment. But will it last longer than the moment of Iowa? He has little chance in New Hampshire and is going on to South Carolina, where he hopes to repeat his Iowa surge. The difference, of course, is that his Iowa surge came too late for negative ads against him there; but you can bet they'll be out in force in S.C.

And then: Bye, bye, Rickie. And good riddance. Take your promise to "annual gay marriages" and shove it.

Ralph

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