Santorum cried "foul" and charged that the Romney campaign had bought up a lot of tickets and passed them out. That may be true, but that's the way these things are done, and that's why it's called a "straw" poll. Santorum could have done the same thing. It's perfectly legal.
More meaningful, is that a telephone poll reported the same day of self-identified conservative voters still gave Romney a 27% to 25% edge over Santorum.
But now here's the "disconnect" part. We're also told that a Public Policy Poll of "usual Republican primary voters," conducted between Feb 9 and Feb 11, ie after the Tuesday trifecta, had these results: Santorum 38%, Romney 23%, Gingrich 17%, Paul 13%.
So in the larger group of "usual GOP primary voters" it's Santorum 38% and Romney 23%; but in the more concentrated group of self-identified conservatives, it's Romney 27% and Santorum 25%.
Further, in the breakdown of the PPP poll, Santorum beat Romney 53% to 15% among those who describe themselves as "very conservative" and by 51% to 12% among Tea Party members. Gingrich falls in between the two of them in both those groups.
If Santorum had such a large margin in the PPP conservative subgroups on Thurs - Sat, why did he lose to Romney at the Conservative PAC on Saturday?
The only answer I have is "volatility" or something that happened at the CPA Convention. Is Santorum right? Did Romney stack the deck for the straw poll? Even if he did, that doesn't explain Romney's lead in the national telephone poll (not the PPP) also released on Saturday. Nate Silver has yet to comment on these polls.
It's interesting how I get so caught up in the minutiae of a campaign among hopefuls, none of whom I like, admire, or support. On the other hand, they are choosing Obama's opponent. So this is all just prelude to the big event.
Ralph
PS: Newt seems increasingly irrelevant in this -- although he could have another rebirth, possibly in Ohio.
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