Friday, March 9, 2012

Analyzing the GOP race forward

Nate Silver analyzes the polls and the delegate math and makes projections to come up with predictions.   I won't go into the details, but he says that, if Gingrich drops out, about 57% of his supporters would go to Santorum, 27% to Romney, and 16% to Paul.

In such a scenario, and if Santorum then began winning some primaries where he might otherwise run second to Romney (like Illinois, California, New Jersey) -- and it's complicated by the different way delegates are awarded in different states -- it seems just barely possible that Santorum could amass a majority of the delegates prior to the convention.

Of course all this is subject to some unexpected dymanic change in the campaigns.   Will Santorum learn from his recent extremist comments and be a little more political ?  It might also make a difference whether, if Gingrich drops out, he endorses Santorum.

Jason Linkins, political blogger for Huffington Post, looks at Silver's analysis and concludes that the most likely scenario is that neither Santorum nor Gingrich will get enough delegates to go into the convention with a majority.

But what they can do by continuing the campaign -- and likely will do -- is to keep Romney from getting a majority.

That's what makes this race interesting from here forward.   Will it wind up being like conventions used to be?   Instead of going there with the nominee already decided, the convention becomes a real place of negotiation and decision.

They might still wind up choosing Romney.  Or that could be a point at which no one gets a majority on the first vote, or maybe the second.   Then some other candidate is drafted, and delegates begin to switch their votes as they continue to take vote count after vote count -- until someone (Daniels, Christie, Paul Ryan) is nominated.  That's the way it used to be done.

Stay tuned.

Ralph

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