Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Poll: Obama has 8% lead in battleground states

The June results of the NBC/Wall Street Journal monthly poll are out.   The overall results give Obama a slight lead that is not statistically significant:     Obama   47%;     Romney    44%

The results of two questions on the poll were particularly interesting:   

(1)  Obama supporters are strongly pro-Obama,
     Romney supporters are primarily anti-Obama, not pro-Romney.

Of Obama voters:
    Is your vote more FOR Obama?    72%
                or AGAINST   Romney?     22%

 Of Romney voters:
     Is your vote more FOR Romney?    35%
                or AGAINST Obama?           58%

(2)  A large majority realize that Obama inherited the bad economy.

About the economic situation:   Do you feel it is:
    A situation Obama inherited?                      60%
    Obama's policies mostly responsible for       26%
    Some of both?                                            11%

But here is the encouraging breakdown of the group of 12 states that this poll defines as battleground states:  Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.


In those battleground states, collectively, Obama leads Romney by 50% to 42%.

I keep reminding myself:   pay attention to the electoral count, not the popular vote.  And we need to know the results for each individual battleground state.   But Obama is leading in CO, IA, MI, NV, NH, NM, PA, VA, and WI, leaving FL and NC in Romney's column and OH a genuine tossup.  If Obama continues this kind of lead (and it is a significant jump from last month), then his re-election is assured.

Ralph

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