Monday, July 8, 2013

Could abortion fight give GA a Democratic senator in 2014?

Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) is retiring at the end of his term, and the scramble is on to see who will succeed him.  With Georgia in the tight control of Republicans statewide, it should be a relatively easy election for them, notwithstanding the changing demographics that are tilting us back toward Democrats.   But 2014 is probably not yet the year for that tip to occur . . . unless.

Unless the Republicans shoot themselves in the foot in their primary and go the route of Missouri and Indiana that elected Democrats to the Senate after the GOP nominated ultra-conservatives.    Here's the situation in GA, and abortion is the issue.

So far, three current Repubican members of the House, Jack Kingston, Phil Gingary, and Paul Braun, plus former Sec. of State Karen Handel, have announced they will run for the Republican nomination.   All are anti-abortion.    Kingston and Gingary both voted for the recent anti-abortion bill passed by the House;  Karen Handel has her own credential as the insider staff person who almost brought down Planned Parenthood over the issue.

But Paul Braun has gone them one better (or worse, depending on your position).   He voted against the House anti-abortion bill, because it didn't go far enough.   So he is the instant hero of the far-right, anti-abortion crowd.

Now do the math.   You have three conservatives in a race with one ultra-conservative.   If the reasonably sane vote is split three-ways between Kingston, Gingary, and Handel -- then Braun has an advantage.   He could get the nomination.

And that would be the best thing that could happen for the Democrats.   Because Braun is the dream opponent for everybody to the left of the far-right fringe of the right win.   He says crazy things like "theories of evolution and the Big Bang Theory are straight from the pits of hell."

The smarter folks in the state GOP could try to coalesce around one of the trio and defeat Braun.   But, unless that happens, we could see a Democrat again representing Georgia.   And it might just be the daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn.

Ralph

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