Friday, November 29, 2013

Further thoughts about Iran and its nuclear program #3

The diplomacy backers say this is a historic opportunity to change the whole tenor of relations between Iran and the West, and that it will have further implications for a new approach to the whole Middle East and even in our relationship with Russia.

The hawks say that we cannot trust Iran, that they've proved time and again that they do not stick to agreements or that they use a superficial agreement as a cover to continue secretly working toward nuclear weapons.

Fareed Zakaria, writing in Time magazine, says:
"Here's what would have happened had there been no dealIran would have continued to build up its nuclear program, with no constraints or inspections.

"We don't have to imagine that scenario;  it's happened before.  In 2003, Iran approached the U. S. with an offer to talk . . . .  The Bush Administration rebuffed Tehran because it believed that the Iranian regime . . . would either capitulate or collapse if Washington just stayed tough.

"So there was no deal.  What was the result?  In 2003, Iran had 160 centrifuges installedit now has about 19,000. . . .  

"Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu announced his opposition to the deal instantly.  And yet nothing his government has done in a decade has stalled any part of Iran's program, whereas the Geneva deal freezes most of it and actually reverses one key element -- the stockpile of near 20% uranium . . . " 
Do we fully understand what is going on in Iran?    Probably not.   We do know that Amadinijad is gone and that the Iranian people elected a more moderate president and that he seems to have the backing of the Supreme Leader.    But do we know whether they are really intent on developing nuclear weapons?   Or could this be a tactic to change the power balance -- and could that motive be handled through diplomacy?   

The reality seems to be that Iran has the knowledge to develop nuclear programs for energy production and for medical/scientific/technological purposes.   Why shouldn't they, if we can be sure they don't become a threatening nuclear power?   We won't know whether this new president can be trusted or whether he will be allowed to continue with moderation unless we give him the opportunity to prove himself.

That is the question for our diplomats to pursue.   And that opportunity is what is being purchased by this temporary agreement.   It is a test period to see if Iran is willing to live within those parameters.   Is so, why not let them develop nuclear capability for peaceful purposes -- with full compliance with inspections and reporting.

The old Iranian regime proved untrustworthy.   True.   So critics are right to be cautious.  But shouldn't there be a way for a regime to change and be reaccepted in the world?   And how would it prove that it had changed?

By doing exactly what this temporary agreement gives them the opportunity to do.   

The alternative can only lead to economic disaster for the Iranian people and constant belligerance and quite possibly even another war that would draw us in.

Let's take the chance. 

Ralph

2 comments:

  1. When I re-read what I wrote about Iran not being trust-worthy, I wanted to add this: the U.S. has not been trust-worthy from Iran's perspective either. Our CIA was complicit, if not outright active, in the ousting of their duly elected leader Mossadegh in 1973. We've also hacked into their computers that controlled the centrifuges in the nuclear program. And, no doubt, there have been BlackOps activites going on as well. So let's admit that our record is not completely trust-worthy either.

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  2. This is technical. I just read what the different concentrations of uranium are for.
    5% will run some of the nuclear energy reactors.
    20% is needed for some energy reactors and for medical and scientific purposes.
    99% is required for nuclear bombs.

    They currently have some 20% and that is what the agreement says will be diluted back down to the 5%. I also learned that it is more difficult to get from 5% to 20% than from 20% to 99%.

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