A Republican strategist, who writes a column in the Houston Chronicle, had rather dire predictions for his party, despite the seeming big win in the mid-term election. Chris Ladd, said ". . . no GOP candidate on the
horizon has a chance at the White House in 2016 and the chance of
holding the Senate beyond 2016 is vanishingly small.."
In a presidential contest, according to Ladd, Democrats would easily win what he calls "the Blue Wall" of all New England, the Upper Midwest and West Coast states for a total of 257 electoral votes out ot the 270 needed to win. Simply by adding Virginia, Democrats would get the magic number of 270. They could win without taking Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Georgia, or North Carolina.
For a Republican candidate to win would require winning all the Red Wall and all nine tossup states, plus one solidly blue state.
In addition, every major Democratic state ballot initiative won, including minimum wage -- even in red states; and every "personhood" amendment lost.
In the 2016 election, GOP senate candidates will face an even tougher numbers game than Democrats did in 2014. They will have to defend 24 seats, with at least 18 of them competitive, while Democrats will have only one likely controversial seat to defend. So chances look very good for retaking the senate in 2016.
Ladd closes his essay saying: “It is almost too late for
Republicans to participate in shaping the next wave of our economic and
political transformation. The opportunities we inherited coming out of
the Reagan Era are blinking out of existence one by one while we chase
so-called “issues” so stupid, so blindingly disconnected from our
emerging needs that our grandchildren will look back on our performance
in much the same way that we see the failures of the generation that
fought desegregation. Something, some force, some gathering of sane,
rational, authentically concerned human beings generally at peace with
reality must emerge in the next four to six years from the right, or our
opportunity will be lost for a long generation. Needless to say, Greg
Abbott and Jodi Ernst are not that force. ‘Winning’ this election did
not help that force emerge.”
Is this not cause for Democratic optimism, with views like this coming from inside Republican strategist circles?
Ralph
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