Sunday, December 28, 2014

Ted Cruz's Obamacare nightmare coming true

From Jonathan Chait's article in New York magazine, "Ted Cruz's Obamacare Nightmare Comes to Life:"

"In the summer of 2013, with the Affordable Care Act about to begin enrolling its first customers in the new health-care exchanges, Ted Cruz warned Republicans that they were facing one final chance to kill the law. Once Americans had grown accustomed to the sweet comfort of affordable health insurance, Cruz foresaw, they would never give it up. . . .   

"Cruz may have been completely misguided in his belief that this logic dictated that Republicans instigate a government shutdown, but on the political economy of Obamacare, he was completely right. Indications of Cruz’s prescience are popping up everywhere.

". . . .  Unpopular Pennsylvania Republican Governor Tom Corbett recently agreed to accept Medicaid expansion.   Four more Republican governors — in Tennessee, Utah, Indiana, and Wyoming — have taken steps toward following suit. In Washington, the river of attacks against Obamacare issuing from Republicans has slowed to a trickle. . . .  

". . . the anti-Obamacare community fixated on a final hope: that consumers looking to enroll this fall for next year would encounter soaring premiums. Not only has the hoped-for premium shock failed to materialize, . . .  In a market where annual large price hikes have occurred for decades, the result is almost unfathomably positive. . . . 

". . . the next Republican candidate will be running in an environment where repealing the law would create millions and millions of now-identifiable victims. Since the start of the year, Obamacare has gone from a weakness Republicans were salivating at the chance to exploit to an issue they no longer want to talk about. Two years from now, matters could be worse still."

My prediction is that in the 2016 presidential campaign, it won't even be called "Obamacare" anymore, and it will not be a viable campaign issue -- unless the Supreme Court screws things up with this challenge before them about the supplements.   If they do rule those illegal, then my guess is that it will be Republican governors who previously refused to set up state exchanges, who will be scrambling to do so, in order for their citizens to continue to get health coverage -- which, under such a SCOTUS ruling, would require states to set up their own exchanges in order for their citizens to get subsidies.

Won't that be a hoot?

Ralph

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