Friday, October 9, 2015

House Republicans implode . . . as McCarthy's takes himself out of the race for Speaker

Despite Kevin McCarthy's stunning gaffe last week -- in which he let the truth slip out that the Select Committee on Benghazi really was about trying to hurt Hillary Clinton -- despite that, up until noon Thursday, he was expected to win the Republican caucus nomination to be Speaker of the House.

At 8:00 am on Thursday, he made his case before the Republican caucus meeting, as did the other two candidates.   Then four hours later, he stunned everyone by announcing that he was withdrawing his name from consideration.   What happened in those four hours?

His public rhetoric is simply that his primary concern is for the institution of the House, and that, with all the problems they have, they need a new face in the leadership.   He also said that he didn't want to put everyone through a difficult vote.

I think we can translate that into McCarthy finding out, between 8 and 12, that he didn't have the 218 votes necessary to get the nomination.   The fact is, however, that no one else can get that many either.   Now what?   Who?   

The obvious, good choice is Paul Ryan;  and he's already said No.    He has presidential ambitions, and no one is going to come out of being Speaker of this House at this time, with this amount of division and difficult decisions that must be made -- without making too many enemies to have a future beyond being Speaker.   But they're still working on him.   

The question is whether anyone can unite them and form a cohesive caucus?    Or is this another way-station on the way to a breakdown and party split?   And what implications does this have for the presidential primary race?

The most sensible idea would be to choose an interim Speaker to get through this term -- and try again later.   Newt Gingrich told Sean Hannity that, if they came to him with pledges of the 218 necessary votes, he would do it.   It could happen:  you don't have to be a member of the House to be Speaker.   

Let's hope that doesn't happen.  I don't think I could stand Newt -- and Callista's oh-so-perfect hair -- being thrown in our faces again, day after day.

An ideal solution would be for the moderate Republicans to form a coalition with the Democrats, and just let the 40-odd crazies stew in their own do-nothing juice.    But that certainly isn't going to happen.   It's too ideal.   Government could actually work.

Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson (FL) told Chris Hayes last night on MSNBC that there are a number of good bills (immigration reform among them) that would easily pass the House if the Republicans used "regular order" procedure and stopped following "the Hastert Rule," which says that no bill is to be brought to the floor for vote unless a majority of Republicans are for it.    In other words, they don't want to pass any bill that requires Democratic votes to help it pass.    They refuse to do any bipartisan cooperation to get something good done -- except on the few occasions when Speaker John Boehner has done exactly that:  made an exception and not followed the Hastert Rule.

It could happen, and it could work.

Stay tuned . . .  but don't hold your breath.

Ralph

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