Thursday, October 15, 2015

Other opinions on the debate: Clinton vs Sanders

Most beltway media and political insiders think Hillary Clinton won the debate.   But focus groups and instant polls were more impressed with Bernie Sanders and said he won.

The averages of fifteen professional political watchers at FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton an A-, Sanders a B, O'Malley a C+, Webb a D+, and Chafee a D.

ABC News: "Frontrunner Hillary Clinton reasserted herself as the dominant force in the race. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders played to his base, but likely didn’t do much to expand it."   Vox Policy and Politics:  "The consensus of political commentators is clear: Hillary Clinton won the first Democratic debate.  Her polished performance utterly outclassed her rivals, including Bernie Sanders, and reaffirmed her status as the obvious nominee."

CNN:  "Hillary Clinton proved without a doubt Tuesday night why she is the Democratic Party's presidential front-runner.  [She] remained unflappable throughout . . . showcasing her political experience and her command of the issues -- all the while deftly handling criticism of her flip-flops and displaying a humor that put a more human face to her oft-criticized candidacy."    The same commentator said that Sanders "didn't do anything to convince voters he can overcome the electability hurdles a self-declared 'democratic socialist' is sure to face in the general election."

On the other hand, the CNN Facebook poll (probably a very young-skewed demographic) showed 80% picking Sanders as the winner.    CNN online polls also showed overwhelming preference for Sanders.  A Time magazine survey of over 100,000 respondents following the debate, 64% favored Sanders, while a similar MSNBC survey gave him 84%, and 75% of Slate responders went for him.

Let's see how this sorts out in the coming days.   My guess is that these instant polls include people already committed to Sanders and people who are hearing his ideas for the first time -- and it is exciting.   Those who consider a broader picture than what they just heard (and heard not just for the first time) will also consider things like likelihood of being elected and, if elected, being able to get done the things that sound so appealing.

As Hillary Clinton describes herself:   "I'm a progressive who likes to get things done."  For me, at this point, it's a choice between heart and head.  I'd love to live in a country that ran on Sanders's democratic socialist ideals;   but I think Clinton is more electable in 2016, and I don't want to take any chances of having a Republican pick the next three supreme court justices.   Bernie has sold me on his ideals;   I need him to convince me he can win the general election.

Stay tuned.

Ralph

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