Sunday, December 6, 2015

Bernie Sanders leads each GOP candidate in match-up polls

In the latest Quinnipiac University individual match-up polling, Bernie Sanders leads each of the top four Republican candidates.   So does Hillary Clinton, although in each case her lead is a little smaller than is Sanders'.

49%   Sanders                         47%   Clinton
41%   Trump                            41%   Trump

44%   Sanders                         45%   Clinton
43%   Rubio                             44%   Rubio

49%   Sanders                         47%   Clinton
39%   Cruz                                 42%   Cruz

47%   Sanders                         46%   Clinton
41%   Carson                            43%   Carson   

In the same poll, however, Clinton leads Sanders by a widening margin of 60% to 30%, with O'Malley trailing at 2% and 6% undecided.

Another interesting feature of this poll is the favorability/unfavorability ratings.

      44/51   (  -  7%  net)      Clinton
        44/31   (+ 12%  net)     Sanders

        35/57   (  -22%  net)   Trump
        40/33   (  + 7%  net)    Carson
        37/28    (  + 9% net)    Rubio
        33/33    (  even  )         Carson

Interesting !!    Sanders has the highest favorability rating of all at +12%, followed by Rubio at +9% and Carson at +7%.    Here's a twist:   the front runners in each party are the only ones who have a greater than 50% unfavorability score and a negative overall net:  Clinton -7% and Trump -22%. 

What does it all means eleven months before the election?     Who knows?    If this trend continues, does it suggest that Sanders could really win?   He also has the best ratings on "honesty and trustworthy" at 59% to 28%Maybe we should stop saying "we like him but don't think he can win"?

Ralph 

Added note:    These polls were taken before the San Bernadino massacre.   Donald Trump is said to be having a surge since then, presumable related to his (empty) tough talk about being "so tough you don't want to hear about it."

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