Surprises in Iowa: Rubio and Sanders

The actual winner in the Iowa Republican caucuses was Ted Cruz with 28%. followed by Donald Trump with 24%.

But the real winner -- because he far exceeded expectations and came close to beating out Trump for second place -- was Marco Rubio with 23%.   This is with 99% of precincts reporting.    Nobody else came close:   Carson with 12% and others in single digits.   Jeb Bush languished at 3%.

So the GOP race is now effectively a three-man contest.   As it solidifies Rubio as the establishment candidate and gives him momentum going forward.

Although Hillary Clinton gave what amounted to a victory speech, without actually saying she won, she and Bernie Sanders are in a virtual 50-50 tie at this point (12:45 am) with 98% of precincts reporting.  The MSNBC analysts said this may have been a miscalculation in Clinton's data analysis room, since she seemed confident she had won at the point she gave her speech earlier.   Bernie Sanders spoke later and said it looked like a virtual tie.   If she doesn't, in fact, win when all the votes are counted, it's going to make Clinton look grasping at straws.

So the Democrats have a very active two-person contest.

Both Mike Huckabee and Martin O'Malley announced that they were dropping out of their races.

Second place for Donald Trump really made him the loser, because he under-performed.   And Bernie Sanders is the psychological winner for the Democrats, whoever squeeks out the actual percentage win, because he more than met expectations. 

Ralph

PS:   It should be noted that Donald Trump made a concession speech that was, in the words of a Vox commenter:   "shockingly classy."   It was low key, congratulatory, and dignified without his usual braggadocio or petulance.