Saturday, March 19, 2016

'President Trump' as big threat as jihadi terrorism to global economy -- Economic Intelligence Unit

The Economist's Graeme Wearden reported on an assessment of threats to the global economy by the respected Economist Intelligence Unit.   Sixth on their list is Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election.   Here's an excerpt:
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"The prospect of Donald Trujp winning the race to the White House has joined China’s slowing economy, the Greek debt crisis and Britain’s EU referendum as a major threat to the global economy, according to a respected risk analysis firm.

"The Economist Intelligence Unit said the Republican frontrunner could prove a dangerous world leader, damaging global trade, stirring up trouble with Beijing and adding to instability in the Middle East.

"The EIU placed the possibility of Trump being sworn in as US president next January as sixth on their latest list of global threats, as serious as a resurgence of jihadi terrorism, and only marginally less risky than the collapse of the eurozone.

"The US property tycoon had been 'exceptionally hostile towards free trade' during his campaign, and had advocated putting troops on the ground in Syria to fight Islamic State, the unit said.

“'In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war – and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016.'

"It added: 'His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond.'"
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Not that we needed any other reason to abhor the thought of a Trump presidency, but this is a further reason for concern.    Wearden's article went on to say that he did not expect Trump to win the election . . . but, like all of us, he realizes that the risk of "a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn" could change that.

I also worry about Republicans finding something in Clinton's emails that they will try to claim represents criminal behavior or that she will not inspire the enthusiastic turnout to vote.   We see, again and again, in the primaries that Republicans are bringing in new voters and outpacing the Democrats in turnout.

Ralph

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