One political scientist's formula for predicting which party's candidate will be elected president is based on three factors as the campaign moves into the summer prior to the November election:
1. the overall economic health of the nation
2. the incumbent president's approval ratings
3. how far ahead of the convention the party seems to have settled on a nominee.
It's two months until summer; but, in April 2016, all three factors favor the Democrats.
(1) March job growth was, again, a little better than expected: 215,00 new jobs vs the expected 205,000. For the first time in the history of the index, we've had 73 consecutive months of job growth (that's over six years). The unemployment rate is down to 5%. Real wages are finally beginning to go up.
(2) At the same time, President Obama's approval ratings have risen to 53% in the latest Gallup poll. Ronald Reagan's rating was 48% at a similar time.
(3) Although the Democratic race is not as settled as the Clinton campaign wants us to believe, and Bernie Sanders is still very much in the contest (having won six of the last seven contests and may very well win the important Wisconsin primary next Tuesday) -- Clinton still has a formidable lead in delegate count. Market based prediction polls give Clinton an 89% chance of being the nominee. Compare that to the chaos that is the Republican primary. It's not even certain that the nominee will be any of the three currently in the race. On balance, the Democrats score big on this factor as well.
Three out of three factors -- not bad at all.
Ralph
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