Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Indictments begin to close in on Trump

In a much anticipated moment, former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort and his deputy and business partner Rick Gates have been indicted by the Mueller team on multiple charges.  Both have have pled "not guilty" on all charges.  Many of the charges, including money laundering, go back decades and have to do with Manafort's work for a pro-Russian Ukrainian government official.

Other charges against Manafort and Gates include conspiracy to defraud the United States, acting as unregistered agents of a foreign government,  making false statements, and failure to file reports on foreign bank and financial accounts.


Trump and his people have been quick to proclaim that this is old stuff that has nothing to do with his campaign.   But the indicted Manafort is the same Manafort who was the Trump campaign manager when he won the nomination, and Gates was his deputy.  Even if the alleged crimes occurred before, it's the same man with the same connections with Russians -- including the oligarch to whom Manafort offered to give "special briefings" while he was campaign manager.   So that line just won't wash.


There was a third indictment, which at first seemed minor -- a campaign aide had pled guilty to making false statements and was now cooperating with investigators.


But on reflection, and especially after reading The Guardian's account, we should not be lulled by the White House spin.   This is very similar to the Trump Tower meeting with Russians "bringing dirt" on Hillary -- except there were follow up meetings to this one.  Here's how The Guardian article began:
"The special investigation into Russian election meddling closed in dramatically on Donald Trump on Monday, as news broke that a former foreign policy adviser pleaded guilty to perjury over his contacts with Russians linked to the Kremlin and the president’s former campaign manager and another aide faced charges of money laundering. 
"In a day of rapid and surprising developments in Washington, George Papadopoulos, the former foreign policy adviser, was revealed to have pleaded guilty earlier this month to lying to FBI investigators over his contacts last year with two Russians with apparently close ties to their government.  One was an unnamed Russian professor . . . who offered “dirt” on Hillary Clinton.   Another was a woman who portrayed herself as “Putin’s niece.”
The Guardian goes on to say that, although the woman turned out not to be related to Putin, these two links did lead Papadopoulos "to extensive contacts with Russian officials regarding a Putin-Trump meeting and other high-level exchanges."

The perjury had to do with lying about when the contacts occurred.  Initially he told the FBI the contacts were before he joined the Trump campaign.   It was later shown, and he confessed, that it had been in April 2016, after he was already an adviser to the Trump national security team.   Note:   This was two months prior to the infamous June Trump Tower meeting with the Russian lawyer supposedly peddling dirt on Clinton.   Manafort was campaign chair during that whole period, from March to August 2016.

White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders tried to dismiss the 30 year old  Papadopoulos as a one-time "volunteer" on the national security team, who really had nothing much to do with anything of importance.    However, HuffPost has a picture of him sitting at a conference table among a group of ten other men, and looking very much a part of the group -- with President Trump at one end and Attorney General Sessions at the other end.   The caption calls it a meeting of the "national security team," taken in 2016.

The Guardian's account includes this:  "The charges which Papadopoulos accepted as part of his guilty plea said Trump was present at a meeting of national security advisers where Papadopoulos boasted of his Russian connections and said he could help organize a meeting with Putin."

Back to Manafort and Gates:   Their alleged crimes are much more serious;   but the Papadopoulos perjury plea -- announced at this time -- sends a powerful message.   This is not a witch hunt that has nothing to do with Trump.  Mueller has evidence of potential collusion that goes to the top.   And lying to investigators is a punishable crime.

A former federal prosecutor, Renato Mariotti, sees this as Mueller putting pressure on Manafort and Gates to cooperate, hoping for lighter sentences -- as Papadopoulos has done.    That is very plausible, especially with the serious jail-time Manafort and Gates will probably face.


I think Mueller's strategy is clear.    Indicting Manafort and Gates now, hoping to flip them to being witnesses against Team Trump.  By including Papadopoulos, Mueller challenges Trump's false claim that it has nothing to do with his campaign.   We now have two separate instances where Trump team members (Papadopoulos in Europe;  Trump Jr., Manafort, and Kushner in Trump Tower) taking meetings with Russians offering dirt on Hillary.

Stay tuned.

Ralph


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