Matthew Iglesias of Vox,com has looked deeper into the Republicans' proposed tax bills and found that they won't raise nearly as much revenue as they claim; nor will they provide a meaningful boost to economic growth.
He turns to the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, a project of the Wharton Business School of the University of Pennsylvania (President Trump's alma mater). It is a non-partisan, fact-based, interactive model that prioritizes transparency, easy access. and data-driven results.
According to analyses using this model, the Senate bill would increase the federal debt by more than they admit; and, over the ten year period, interest on this debt would offset whatever growth might have been stimulated by the tax cuts. In addition, there would likely be "lower incomes for the bottom half of the income distribution even before considering the negative impact of inevitable spending cuts to offset the surprisingly low federal tax intake."
According to the Penn-Wharton model, the Senate bill as now written would not even qualify as a budget reconciliation, because it would continue to increase the deficit beyond the 10th year. If they don't fix that, it would be subject to a filibuster and require 60 votes, not 51.
Iglesias concludes that "Not even Republicans can make the math work out when they need to plug it into a rigorous model" like the Penn-Wharton Budget model.
There's a lot more technical stuff in Igresias' article. The bottom line is that the rich get richer, while working people barely hold their own, with a paltry long-range income rise of between 0.2% and 1.2%. Even with minimal inflation, they will be worse off than before. And that doesn't even count the very likely cuts in social programs that they benefit from -- or the long-range tax increases on the middle class.
Or the loss of medical insurance to 13 million people if they follow through with cutting the individual mandate and subsidies, which they proposed as a way to find some savings to offset the tax cuts. In other words, they would take away health care to millions to help pay for the tax cuts demanded by the super-rich.
Paul Ryan is either lying when he says they're doing this to help the working people . . . or he's stupid and shouldn't be hawking tax reform bills.
Bah humbug !
Ralph
He turns to the Penn-Wharton Budget Model, a project of the Wharton Business School of the University of Pennsylvania (President Trump's alma mater). It is a non-partisan, fact-based, interactive model that prioritizes transparency, easy access. and data-driven results.
According to analyses using this model, the Senate bill would increase the federal debt by more than they admit; and, over the ten year period, interest on this debt would offset whatever growth might have been stimulated by the tax cuts. In addition, there would likely be "lower incomes for the bottom half of the income distribution even before considering the negative impact of inevitable spending cuts to offset the surprisingly low federal tax intake."
According to the Penn-Wharton model, the Senate bill as now written would not even qualify as a budget reconciliation, because it would continue to increase the deficit beyond the 10th year. If they don't fix that, it would be subject to a filibuster and require 60 votes, not 51.
Iglesias concludes that "Not even Republicans can make the math work out when they need to plug it into a rigorous model" like the Penn-Wharton Budget model.
There's a lot more technical stuff in Igresias' article. The bottom line is that the rich get richer, while working people barely hold their own, with a paltry long-range income rise of between 0.2% and 1.2%. Even with minimal inflation, they will be worse off than before. And that doesn't even count the very likely cuts in social programs that they benefit from -- or the long-range tax increases on the middle class.
Or the loss of medical insurance to 13 million people if they follow through with cutting the individual mandate and subsidies, which they proposed as a way to find some savings to offset the tax cuts. In other words, they would take away health care to millions to help pay for the tax cuts demanded by the super-rich.
Paul Ryan is either lying when he says they're doing this to help the working people . . . or he's stupid and shouldn't be hawking tax reform bills.
Bah humbug !
Ralph
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