Of 42 top economists, only 1 says GOP tax plan would help the economy

Ezra Klein, co-founder of Vox.com, headlined this story.  The University of Chicago's business school has an ongoing survey of top economists from a wide spread of political and economic views.  When asked about the current Republican tax reform bills, here's what they found.

On their recent survey, their first question was:   If  Congress passes something similar to the bills that are currently being considered , do you think the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would be "substantially higher a decade from now?"

Only one of 42 economists said yes.  Most either said it would not, or were uncertain, or didn't answer.    Some of the comments were noteworthy.  Austan Goolsbee, Obama's chief economist, wrote:  "Of course not.  Does anyone care about actual evidence anymore?"

The latest Nobel Prize in Economics winner wrote:  "Aside from the redistribution of wealth, it's hard to see this changing much."  A Stanford professor was the only one to think it would increase the GDP; but even he added:  "Whether the overall tax plan is distributionally fair is another matter."

The second question was whether the Republican tax plan would increase the US debt-to-GDP ratio substantially.  The news was grim for Republicans on this one too.  All but one agreed the bill would "blow up the deficit."

An MIT economist commented:   "How could it be otherwise?"  A Yale professor wrote:  "No way the growth effects will be strong enough to offset the revenue losses."  Even the one economist who thought it would boost the GDP said that it would pile up debt.

Ezra Klein's summary of the "verdict of the economics profession" is this:  "The growth benefits of the Republican tax plans are either nonexistent or uncertain.  The increase in debt, by contrast, seems certain. . . .  It doesn't sound like a good trade."

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And here's my take.  I agree with Austan Goolsbee, who asked:   "Does anyone care about actual evidence anymore?"   Even since Ronald Reagan, Republican have been extolling the virtues of "trickle down" economics.  The myth is that giving tax cuts to the "job creators" will bring new jobs, so everybody benefits.  But it just does not work out that way.   Corporations and business elites are now awash in money, but there is no trickle down.   Workers salaries have not risen, the income gap has widened to record dimensions -- and yet they're still demanding more tax cuts for the corporations and the super-wealthy.

The solution, as I see it, is consistent with what Democrats try to do.  Put money in the pockets of people who will spend it on things to improve their lives.  You can do that by raising the minimum wage, giving tax cuts to the middle class,  increasing spending on social network programs, and createing new jobs by investing in infrastructure improvements, which also improves our communities with better roads, bridges, education, parks, etc.  Money in the pockets of lower and middle class people will create demand, from people who can then afford to buy -- and corporations will meet the demand by expanding.   That's the way to do it.   Not by cutting taxes for Wall Street and billionaires.  

But Republicans are beholden to their super-rich donors;  and these donors have given them an ultimatum.   Get us those tax cuts, or no donations for your next campaign.    The answer is obvious:   We have to vote these people out of office;  give control back to Democrats and hope they've learned the lessons from how they lost Congress during Obama's later years.

And -- very important -- we have to get rid of Citizens United and fix the problem of money controlling our politicians and our government.

Ralph