What about the Korea(s)?

The leaders of South Korea and North Korea met yesterday in an historic, literal "stepping-across" the line . . . together . . . that separates the two divisions.   South Korean President Moon Jae-in was waiting for his counterpart, Kim Jong-un of North Korea -- who took the step across the concrete separating line as they shook hands.   Then, holding hands, they stepped together back across the line into North Korea, and then back into the South.   Then for their meeting they went into the Peace House, built in the demilitarized zone for just such meetings.

This summit between North and South has been carefully orchestrated by Moon and Kim;   but its value is largely symbolic, even if highly important.   What happens next, in the upcoming meeting between Kim and President Trump will be determinative.    Here's why.

In 1950, North Korea invaded South Korea, setting off a bloody war.   The United Nations backed a response to the North's, largely made up of United States troops.    China backed the North, but the fighting was largely done between North Korean troops on one side and South Koreans and U.S. troops on the other.  After millions were killed, a truce was agreed on in 1953, but no peace treaty was ever signed.    The war officially has never ended.   And we still have tens of thousands of troops stationed there.

Because of the way it was structured, with the U.S. as the lead force, the South Koreans cannot by themselves officially end the war on their own.   The U.S. has to do that.

However, President Moon is being very assertive in trying to lead the North and the U.S. to such an agreement.    So here's what happened in the summit between Moon and Kim yesterday.

   1.  They made many declarations and gestures to indicate that they are one people and do not wish to be divided again by war but to work toward a peace treaty to officially end the Korean War of the 1950s.
   2.  They pledged to "work toward" the common goal of "complete denuclearization" of the Korean peninsula.
   3.  There was no attempt to define "complete denuclearization."

Note that these are intentions stated.  Neither side made any concrete concessions or promised any specific actions.   But it was a great symbolic gesture and sets the stage for the upcoming summit between Trump and Kim.

President Trump, for his part, has made positive statements supportive of the Moon-Kim summit.    He refers to "complete denuclearization" -- but does he mean the same thing they do by these words?   In the past, it seems that Trump assumed that North Korea would actually give up its nuclear weapons and destroy its capability of making more.    That's not what Kim has actually promised -- in words, he said only he would pause in testing or making more.  And then he talks about a common goal of complete denuclearization.   But it's not clear exactly what that means.

But at the same time, Kim has also seemed to encourage the positive mood created by the impression that Trump has.   In fact, many analysts think that Kim's motive in acquiring nuclear weapons was transactional:   as a negotiating power to gain acceptance on the world stage.

Now that he is getting that recognition -- a negotiating summit with the U.S. president -- he might actually be willing to trade them for the freedom from sanctions, plus economic assistance, that will allow him to bring his impoverished nation into the kind of economic growth that he must envy in his neighbor and his backer to the south:   China.

The optimist in me wants to believe that Kim, who has had members of his own family assassinated to maintain his own power, now has a different kind of motive -- one that genuinely wants to be the father of an economically successful nation that can take its place on the world stage.

Experienced analysts caution that we've been here before.   Kim and his father and grandfather have made promises that they didn't keep.   So we should not be naive.   But neither should we ignore the positive signs coming from Kim Jong-un.

One good sign that Trump may not be quite the loose cannon we fear.  He sent out a tweet saying:  "Things have changed very radically since my name-calling of the North Korean leader."    I do believe that's as close to an apology as I've ever heard from Trump.

Or, if not an apology, at least it's an attempt to reset rather than double down.

Ralph