The question is: does this mean anything? Here's Nico Pitney's take on it (HuffingtonPost):
Understanding Khamenei's voter fraud shift. It's still unclear why Khamenei decided to announce a probe of possible election fraud, or what that investigation might look like. (It was strange enough that he came out on Sunday and re-blessed Ahmadinejad's victory.)Justifiably skeptical readers note that, at the very least, this announcement can buy the Supreme Leader time and relieve some of the urgency felt by pro-Mousavi Iranians.
Another emailer, Reza, is even more pessimistic: "Please put the Supreme Leader's request to probe the election results in perspective for your readers. The body that will be probing election is appointed by the Supreme Leader and all its members are hardliners and backers of Ahmadinejad and his policies. This is nothing but a sham in an attempt to extinguish the fever for change that's taking hold in the country."
This may very well be true. On the other hand, Khamenei is most certainly feeling pressure from various quarters -- popular unrest, the more ideologically-moderate camp of former President Rafsanjani, a host of Ayatollahs, and so on -- to address the election allegations. And it's unclear at this point how Khamenei addresses any of those pressures by having a sham probe give a seal of approval to the results.
So, we wait. Khamenei is in a delicate balance: he wants to retain the power of the clerics, yet if he crushes the reform movement in an obvious way -- as in this clumsily stolen elections and the reaction to the protests up to now -- then his international standing is seriously jeopardized, just when Iran is making a bid for acceptance.
The European Union was too quick to recognize Ahmanedijad's "victory." The Obama administration is taking the better stance of waiting.
Ralph
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