Sunday, June 28, 2009

Iran

Government crackdowns have effectively shut down the street demonstrations, and the rumored national strike did not occur. Mousavi has agreed to seek a permit for future demonstrations one week in advance, and his web site has been shut down. So they have almost silenced him as well.

However, it may not be over yet. The U.K.'s Guardian reports:
The power struggle inside Iran appears to be moving from the streets into the heart of the regime itself this weekend amid reports that Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani is plotting to undermine the power of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rafsanjani's manoeuvres against Khamenei come as tensions between the speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also appeared to be coming to a head.

Mass demonstrations on the streets against the election results have been effectively crushed by a massive police and basiij militia presence that has seen several dozen deaths and the arrests of hundreds of supporters of defeated candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi. But the splits within Iran's political elite are deepening. . . .

In a move with even greater potential significance, according to several reports Rafsanjani has been lobbying fellow members of the powerful 86-strong Assembly of Experts, which he chairs, to replace Khamenei as the supreme leader with a small committee of senior ayatollahs, of which Khamenei would be a member. If Rafsanjani were successful, the constitutional change would mean a profound shift in the balance of power within Iran's theocratic regime. . . .

Rafsanjani has long been a proponent of weakening the power of the supreme leader. He is understood to be arguing in favour of replacing Khamenei with a leadership council of three or more senior clerics.

The splits in the Assembly of Experts - the least visible aspect of the present crisis - will be critically important to its eventual outcome. . . .

The complexity of the present political manoeuvres has meant Iran's elites have been made to take sides, reflected in the decision by almost half the members of the parliamentary assembly to boycott the celebration dinner called by Ahmadinejad to mark his "re-election".

The largely behind the scenes moves have come as Iranians opposed to the regime have been forced to go underground with their protests, despite the threats of Khamenei and the brutal attacks of the Revolutionary Guards and basiij militia.

The article goes on to describe the ways people are continuing to express their protests: the 10 pm crying out from the rooftops of "Allah-o-Akbar" (God is great) has only increased since Khatami's warning, people have switched from wearing green to black for mourning, and others drive with their car lights on to express defiance.

One question for Rush Limbaugh and the republican clowns in congress: if this movement fails and you blame Obama for not speaking out like the bellicose blind bush would have done, are you willing, if it does succeed, to give Obama credit for not meddling and making us the focus if it?

Ralph

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