Palin's priorities

Sarah Palin stunned us all yesterday with her resignation.

It was not unexpected that she would announce she is not running for re-election. But quitting with 2 more years to go? And saying she doesn't want to waste Alaskan's tax money being a lame duck governor??

The loopy logic in that is that every governor should resign midway so as not to be a lame duck. Or did she mean something else?

Several possibilities have been advanced:

1. A brilliant political tactic. The idea is that she's stuck way up there in a small state with no way to enhance her national credentials for a president run in 2012; and there are so many problems being a governor, as well as the political vendettas (she thinks) against her that are prompting all these ethics charges. So she'll just leave that all behind.

And, on the positive side, it would give her the chance to campaign for conservatives across the country and build her base -- and time to study up so she's better prepared. Bill Kristol is the foremost champion of this meme. He's been smitten with her and pushed for her nomination as VP, long before McCain picked her. Kristol is also notoriously wrong in his predictions, so I would almost take this as the most reliable indicator that this is NOT the reason.

2. She's fed up with politics. Some of her associates are saying that she has had enough, that she hates the life she is leading now and is bailing out of politics -- at least running for office. She is known to hate commuting from Wasilla to the capital (most governors move to the capital), she's lost much of her influence to get anything done and has been sidetracked defending ethics charges, and she just wants to raise her family. Plus she and her family have been the object of ridicule and criticism that must be hard to take.

This is probably all true; but quitting is not her style, especially quitting in a way that suggests she can't take the heat. She is a feisty fighter and she is ambitious.

Dan Shorr gave his take on it this morning on NPR. He thinks it has to do with what's going on in the Republican party. He mentioned the Rolling Stone article that quoted several anonymous leaders who were highly critical of her, and he thinks she's reacting to that and just deciding to call it quits. Or possibly go outside party politics and drum up grassroots support, where she remains popular.

3. There's some scandal brewing that we don't yet know about. Rumors abound, and it may be just that. The most potentially damaging one is that she and Todd are under investigation for possible criminal charges involving accepting gifts for influence in awarding contracts. Another suggests the IRS is looking into tax problems.

My guess is #3, mainly based on reading her vocal and body language in her press conference. She has handled difficult situations before -- the interviews with Charlie and Katie, the debate with Biden, the whole campaign thing. And, although I haven't studied the tapes, my impression is that, even in those difficult interviews, she kept control of her voice and maintained an even, controlled vocal line. Even when she sounded dumb in substance. Just think: "In what respect, Charlie?" It revealed her ignorance, but she kept her voice calm. She was a master at saying dumb or inane things and sounding like she, at least, thought it profound and true.

In this announcement she sounded and looked rattled. Her voice was unsteady, the rhythms and cadences of her speech were not smooth and controlled, she seemed to be groping. Some commentors have said she seemed "unhinged."

The other telling factor is that this was obviously a rushed decision and announcement. They say it had been in the works for some time. But the decision to go public was not long in planning. Even the Lt. Gov. who will take over, looked stunned and said he'd only been told the night before.

So it all adds up to something that she feels either frightened or very angry about. She's handled anger before in her controlled way of speaking. My guess is that it's fear.

And that all points to some new scandal that's big enough to result in a trial and possibly forced resignation. So she's trying to get out ahead of it.

But maybe Bill Kristol will surprise us all and be right for a change.

Ralph