Monday, November 1, 2010

Finally, tomorrow . . .

The verdict will soon be in, and as of now predictions are all over the place. Late momentum by some of the Democratic candidates brings hope that it won't be so bad. And then I read last night that some experienced Democratic political consultants have privately predicted a loss of up to 70 House seats. This would be a midterm defeat of historic proportions.

I'm going to try to quit torturing myself with "maybe's" and hoping against hope that it won't be so bad. Instead, let's look at the consequences I've also been reading commentary about.

1. There is actually a political advantage to losing control of at least one house. It puts Republicans in the position of some responsibility to try to solve problems instead of just saying no. And when they obviously don't have quick fixes either, the people will stop blaming it all on the Dems. One commentator went so far as to say that losing both houses would ensure Obama's re-election in 2012.

2. There's some thinking that many of the losses are going to be the Blue Dog Dems from conservative districts that usually elect conservatives. It was they who caused some of the biggest road blocks to getting progressive legislation passed. Except for losing control of the committees and the agenda, the voting might not be that much different.

3. Republicans are happy for the Tea Party zealots to fire up the enthusiasm, but they have no intention of allowing them to take over and have much influence. As with the social conservatives in past elections, they are being used to win votes, not to change their policies. The Repub leadership doesn't want to appear too extreme, because their eye is really on solidifying their gains in Congress and taking the White House in 2012. Doing anything too extreme would backfire on that plan.

4. Perhaps some significant wins in the election will be cathartic and disperse some of the anger that's poisoning our political process. At least all those relentless TV ads will be gone (here in GA we'll have a few more weeks leading up to the run-off).

Or am I just whistling past the graveyard?

Here's the most depressing thing I've read in all this. Tomorrow, the largest block of potential voters will be those who stay home and don't bother to vote. And by a survey, as compared with those who do vote, they will be younger, blacker, and more liberal. That apparently is typical, and it gives the false impression that the country is right of center. The analysis of this poll suggests that is not true, that it is a false impression based on voting patterns.

That may be true. Buy opinions don't count; it's the votes that count.

Should we wear black tomorrow?

Ralph

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