Here's the one that does have significance, here just 4 weeks from the Iowa caucuses (from TPM):
The latest poll of Iowa voters from the Des Moines Register shows that “More than 70 percent of likely caucusgoers are still up for grabs.” That means that despite Newt Gingrich’s lead, voters haven’t settled on a final candidate and the landscape could shift before the January 3 caucuses.If 70% of those likely to go out on a cold January night in Iowa are still not decided, even despite their whirlwind romance with Newt, then anything could happen.
And, as we know from the past, more than in any other early voting contest, the organizational ground game -- who actually gets their supports to go out to the caucuses -- is what counts most in Iowa.
Callista might ought to hold off a while before she starts measuring for drapes in the White House.
Ralph
Nate Silver has analyzed the polls from since 1980 to compare the leader one month ahead and the actual winner of the Iowa caucuses.
ReplyDeleteOf 11 contested caucuses, including both Dem and Rep caucuses, the one leading a month out won the Iowa caucus 8 times. That's pretty good odds for Newt, then.
But this is not a usual year. I don't think we've ever seen quite this much volatility over such a sustained time.