Parsing that Gallup poll

In my last post, a summary of the Gallup poll on the effect of the convention among Independent voters showed a slightly more favorable view of Romney after than before, but only slightly.   It was generally regarded as a very small effect (3%).  It will be interesting to see what effect Obama's convention has on the same group.

Now a longer report on the details of the poll is more interesting.

The overall bounce effect, including all voters:

     More likely to vote for Romney   40%
     Less likely  to vote for Romney   38%

Compared to other post-convention bounce polls, the 2% net positive is the lowest in the history of such polling.

Here's another significant fact:   The Democrats almost always get more of a bounce from their polls than do the Republicans.

Net bounce:         2012     2008     2004     2000    1996    average
     Republicans        2%      5%         3%      17%      11%       9.0%
     Democrats         tba     14%       14%      15%      15%     14.5%

And here is the really good news.
They are tied in the latest polls after the GOP convention.

And Obama's convention bounce is yet to come !!

Ralph