Twelve more days, and what are the good signs that Obama will still win this thing?
1. Nate Silver's magical number-crunching gives Obama a 71% chance of winning the electoral vote, even though the popular vote is frighteningly close: 50.2% to 48.8%.
2. The most important factor now is who actually goes to the polls to vote. Good news: the state parties also have their budgets for organizing and getting out the vote. In the swing states, the Dems state parties have raised $101 million, while the Repubs state parties have only $51 million.
3. Several judicial decisions have over-turned, or at least postponed, voter ID laws so they won't be in effect for this election. It will still be a problem, and all kinds of dirty tricks are already afoot, like flyers being sent out in two different states with election date listed as Nov. 8 instead of Nov. 6. But the Dems have anticipated this with their staggeringly well-organized ground game.
3. Republican clowns continue to say extreme things about abortion: a woman doesn't get pregnant from rape', 'even a rape is part of God's plan, so no abortion even when the result of rape', etc. ** (see below) And this poses a problem for Romney, who had already made an ad for the senate candidate who said this one.
4. The Donald's Big Secret Revelation that he had hyped, trying to bring a little attention to Himself, proved to be a Big Flop. It was nothing more than an announcement that he would donate $5 million to charity if Obama would release his college transcript and his birth certificate.
5. Obama felt confident enough to go on Jay Leno's show to ridicule The Donald, mockingly saying that Trump's resentment of him goes back to their childhood . . . "in Kenya" . . . where Barack used to beat him in soccer . . . "he wasn't very good at it."
Ralph
**Frankly, I've always thought the latter should be their principled position -- if a one-day old zygote is actually a person, then any abortion is murder, and it's not the child's fault. So the only possible justification for abortion would be to save the life of the mother -- otherwise, the fetus would die anyway with the mother. But that's another argument about when life begins. So it's principled -- I just disagree with their principle. And it obviously wasn't politically wise to say it to the independent voters you're trying to win.
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Mourdock has now apologized to the people of Indiana and gained the support of all the Republican establishment. He explained that what he was trying to say is that he views each life as sacred and intended by God to live -- so therefore, even a child conceived by rape, is part of God's plan.
ReplyDeleteI understood that from the beginning, and I think the Democrats went overboard in making a big stink about it. On the other hand, as close as the election is, and given the dirty politics the Republicans are using (trying to intimidate the Democratic voters and suppress the vote), I don't blame them for using anything to fight back.
There's no doubt the Repubs would have taken advantage of a similar gaffe by Mourdock's opponent in this close race.