Countdown: 10 to go

With only 10 days left before the election, it comes down to who is actually going to the polls to vote.

Undoubtedly, the Obama campaign has a far superior ground organization, but the Romney campaign has more advertising money.   But my guess is that, by this time, voters are saturated with TV ads.

The Republicans have other means that will counter the Democrats' better get-out-the-vote plan.

1.  The voter ID laws in some states will actually stop some voters and intimidate others from trying.   That will diminish the Democratic vote.   Part of the Democratic plan is to have poll watchers who will assist anyone who is turned away from the polls to cast a provisional ballot.  But that then requires the voter to go to some central office after the election and supply the necessary documents, which they may not have, or can't take time off from work, or are afraid irrationally that they will be put in jail.    No doubt it's going to hurt some.

2.  Republicans are not above dirty tricks.   Already there have been more than one instances of official notices being sent out about the election with the wrong date.   They lamely claim that it was an oversight in failing to change the date on the notice used in the last election, which was November 8th.    But many a malevolent scheme hides behind a rational explanation.   And that's only official mis-information.    Dirty campaigns can be expected to have "anonymous" notices sent out with wrong information about where to vote, or intimidating notices sent to voters who don't know better to frighten them from going to the polls.

3.  And then there is the appearance, at least, of improper connections.   Tagg Romney, son of the Republican candidate for president, owns a significant financial interest in the company that makes voting machines used in Ohio.   Isn't that interesting?    Wonder why he chose to invest in that particular company?    Seriously, I doubt that Tagg Romney is planning to steal the election by manipulating voting machines.    But there was proof that an election official in Ohio in 2008 owned voting machines that were flawed and messed up the vote.

4.  The Frankenstorm heading for the East Coast is predicted to do a lot of damange, maybe knock out power for days to come.   If there is major disruption that makes it harder for people to vote -- say knocking out public transportation -- it will affect the demographics that tend to vote Democratic.

5.   Look what they did with hanging chads in Florida in 2000.   If any of the vote winds up for the Supreme Court to decide again, it's even more likely to favor the Republican than in 2008.  We can no longer believe that this court is non-partisan.

Here's my prediction:   If there is no suppression or manipulation of the vote, either intentional or otherwise, Obama will win.

But that's a big IF.   And Republicans are not above stealing the election, if they can.

Ralph