Thursday, November 1, 2012

Obama's chances looking better

Nate Silver's metrics continue to edge back in favor of Obama's winning.

Electoral vote:   Obama 303.4, Romney 234.6.

Popular vote:    Obama 50.5%, Romney 48.4% .

Chances of winning:   Obama 80.9%, Romney 19.1%.

Graphs for all three are interesting.   All show a sharp shift in Romney's direction in mid-October, probably reflecting both the first debate and increased negative ads from Romney.   But since then, they are returning to the early September levels, except the popular vote which shoes a shift back toward Obama but remains closer than early September.

Also InTrade has Obama at 66.6%.

Still too close for comfort, but very good news.

Ralph

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