Study: politicians out of touch with constituents

An academic study at the University of Michigan surveyed nearly 2,000 state legislative candidates as to where they thought their constituents stood on three issues:   same-sex marriage, universal health care, and abolishing all welfare programs.

The results showed a remarkable misperception.   Overall, the politicians thought the people were more conservative than they are.   For example, their estimate of support for same-sex marriage and universal health care was 10% lower than it actually is.

Those politicians identified as conservative were off by 20%;  i.e. they thought support for those issues was 20% lower than it actually is.   In fact, the authors of the study concluded this:

"This difference is so large that nearly half of conservative politicians appear to believe that they represent a district that is more conservative on these issues than is the most conservative district in the entire country."

This, of course, is a survey of state-level candidates for office in one state, albeit a swing-state in national elections.   Even if the numbers are not generalizable to the national level, they are still significant enough that it probably does indicate an effect that should be considered.   It fits with the Romney team's miscalculation of their chances of winning.

And, as the authors also point out, the findings rebuke the Nixonian notion of a "silent majority" that is more conservative that known.

Shouldn't progressive politicians look at this and take heart?   Dare to be bolder?   Listen up, President Obama and Democrats in Congress !!

Ralph