Saturday, January 17, 2015

70% now live in marriage-equality states. SCOTUS to decide whether it's 100%

With the addition of Florida, the number of people living in states where same-sex couples can legally marry has now reached 
  70%

That was the big news three days ago.   Yesterday, the U. S. Supreme Court announced that it will hear the four cases leading to a 2 to 1 decision by the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals for Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan that upheld those states' bans on same-sex marriage.

In every other case that has reached the U. S. Circuit Court level, the bans have been struck down.   So this gives SCOTUS the first chance to hear a case in which there was a different decision.    Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg tried to tell us that last year in her cryptic way.

This suggests that the court is ready to make a definite decision -- one way or the other.

Or not.  Of course, in its inscrutable way, SCOTUS doesn't tip its hand.  And maybe even they don't know yet.   It will likely come down to a 5-4 or a 6-3 decision, with Kennedy and Roberts being the decisive votes.

Or, if Justice Scalia votes on principle, based on his dire prediction in his scathing dissent in Windson -- it could be 7-2.

Or they may punt again.   But that's unlikely, given that 70% of the American people now have that freedom to marry a same-sex partner if they choose -- and thousands of marriages would be thrown into a legal limbo.

Arguments will be this spring with a decision expected by the end of June.

Ralph

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