Sunday, February 21, 2016

Clinton wins in Nevada

[Data updated from earlier post]

Hillary Clinton won over Bernie Sanders in the Nevada caucusesThe final tally was Clinton 52.7%, Sanders 47.2%According to exit polls, Clinton won it in urban areas and among African-Americans, while Sanders did better in rural areas and among Latinos.

But let's put some perspective here too.   Although it's being ballyhooed as "decisive" and giving Clinton "a clear path to the nomination," the total vote was something like 12,000.   Her win of 5.5% sounds big, until you realize that represents just a little over 600 votesThat's a pretty small sample to call decisive.   Sanders himself defeated Clinton in New Hampshire by over 50,000 votes.

Further, Sanders won 16 delegates to Clinton's 22 in Nevada.  Polling is difficult in there, because you never know who's going to show up at the caucuses.   Nevertheless, Sanders came from way, way behind in the polls:  a deficit of 25% just a few months ago.

So I'm not sure how decisive this is.   But Clinton and the media are quick to claim it to be that, just as they did her virtual tie with Sanders in Iowa.

Ralph 

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