Trump's big win in Nevada . . . and Cruz's loss.

The Nevada caucuses were made a part of the quartet of early-voting states to represent both the western states and a more demographically diverse population.  Here are the results.

          Trump           45.95%
          Rubio             23.9%
          Cruz                21.4%
          Carson             4.8%
          Kasich              3.6% 

This was a big and a very significant win for Trump.  He has now won in New England, the South, and the West and came close in the Midwest.   And, even more significant, in Nevada he came in first in  almost every category:   women, evangelicals, more educated, less educated, moderates, and those who identify as "very conservative," -- but also with unions members and Hispanics.

Consider the bad news for Cruz:   his two big constituencies are:   "very conservative" and "evangelical."   He lost both to Trump.   As to other categories, we should remember that this was a Republican primary, and all those categories have "Republican" attached.   Just how many Republican Hispanics are there, how many Republican union members?   In a one-to-one, Hillary will probably carry those latter categories easily against Trump.

But this was a primary;  and for Trump to win over Cruz among evangelicals and very conservative voters is really bad news for Cruz.   Perhaps his dirty tricks are catching up with him.

Rubio's second place win was enough to keep him in the race, pick up some endorsements and probably big donors.   He and Jeb have talked and plan to meet.   Would his endorsement help?   Not much.   Rubio seems the only viable opponent for Trump at this point.  But he's got to start winning some states.    Super Tuesday will be the big test for him.   It may just be too late.

Which brings us to the question:   Can Trump beat Clinton?   I think that depends on what happens between now and November.   If there is a major terrorist attack, yes he might be swept into office on a wave of nationalist fervor and fear -- plus blame of Obama and Hillary as his Sec. of State.

Or if they manage to make her emails a big issue, that could do it.    Yesterday, a federal judge gave the go-ahead on an important procedural issue in the case.   It had to do with requiring testimony from her top aides from that time.  I think this is the scenario in which Bloomberg might step in and run an independent campaign, if it looks like she will falter.

Another scenario would be if Trump does a pivot and starts acting like an adult, appoints some good advisers and listens to them, indicating that he is taking it seriously.   Then he would appeal more to independents and conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans, who might otherwise stay home.    Combine his broad, populist appeal with acting like a serious-minded candidate, willing to learn how to be president -- that could make him really formidable in November. 

It is a bit sobering to look at the comparable turnout.   The Democratic caucuses in Nevada totaled around 12,000.   The Republicans had about 75,000.  And the Democrats had the advantage of holding theirs on a Saturday;   the Republicans caucused on Tuesday night.  Nobody is talking about that.

I did early voting yesterday and cast my vote for Bernie Sanders.   I don't see a path to victory for him, but I wanted to register my approval for his goals and his idealism and to thank him for running this race and pulling Hillary to the left.

I've followed presidential politics ever since the days of Jack Kennedy.    There's never been anything like this one as a fascinating process to watch unfold.

Ralph