Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Trump, Clinton, and Sanders win primaries

On the Republican side, the big news is that Marco Rubio had another terrible, awful, not so very good night.   He came in a distant fourth in both Mississippi and Michigan, both of which Donald Trump won, by 11 and 12%.   Cruz finished a strong second in Mississippi;  and, as of 11 pm, it was still too close to call second in Michigan between Kasich and Cruz.   The only question for Rubio seems to be whether to stay in the race and risk being defeated in his own state of Florida next week..

Honestly, I don't know why Rubio has done so poorly -- and getting much worse in the last two weeks.   Was it sinking to the Trump level of insults in the last debate?   Or is it the mantra of being identified as the establishment candidate when much of the voters' anger is anti-establishment -- at least on the Republican side?   And, incidentally, the attacks on Trump by Rubio in the debate, and by the SuperPacs in tv ads, don't seem to have hurt Trump.    In fact, you could argue that it's actually hurt Rubio. 

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton had a blowout win in Mississippi, with 83% of the vote.   But it was a different story in Michigan.   Clinton was ahead 20+% in the polls, and Nate Silver gave her a 99% chance of winning.   But Sanders won a stunning upset.  He was ahead all evening by 4 to 5% -- until past 11pm when the African-American Detroit vote began to come in.   For a while, it looked like she might catch up, but with 94% of the vote in, MSNBC was able to call it a Sanders win by 2%.   Proportional division of delegates means they will get almost the same number.

But Sanders will get the momentum by coming from way behind to win against expectations.    Clinton's lead had her campaign hoping that a decisive win in Michigan would effectively end the contest, so she could turn her attention to the general election.   Instead, she's now got to worry about continuing to defeat Sanders.

His strength in Michigan comes in large part from his stronger position in opposing the big trade deals (NAFTA, TPP) and the economic inequality message.    This also bodes well for him in other big industrial states of Ohio and Pennsylvania and, later, Wisconsin.

Ralph

Late addition:   Cruz won the Idaho caucuses.   Hawaii results not yet available was won by Trump.

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