Saturday, May 7, 2016

Trump is the presumptive GOP nominee, and here's what's happening

On Tuesday, May 3rd, Donald Trump had a triumphant, double digit win over Ted Cruz in the Indiana primary.   Cruz and Kasich have dropped out,  and Trump has been proclaimed by the RNC chair as "the presumptive nominee."  Here are some things that have happened.

1.  Ted Cruz told us what he "really thinks" about Donald Trump.   Then he unloaded, calling Trump "a pathological liar, a serial philanderer who boasts about it, and a narcissist at a level the country has never before seen. Notice also that, in telling us "what I really think," Cruz reveals that he, himself, has been a serial dissembler in praising Trump in the past.

2.  A few opportunists have jumped on the bandwagon, but other politicians have distanced themselves or outright said they cannot vote for Trump.   Both Presidents Bush 41 and 43 have said they will not endorse him -- a statement that, in itself, speaks volumes about what they really think.  Also younger brother and once Trump rival Jeb Bush will not support  Trump;  neither will once rival Sen. Lindsey Graham.   Speaker Paul Ryan, the most important Republican elected official, says "not yet; we have to unite the party first."  New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, in a difficult re-election herself, has said she will "support" Trump, but she will not endorse him.   That's cutting it pretty fine.

3.  Several weeks ago, the 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney sharply denounced the Trump candidacy, trying to stop the growing support.  It didn't work.   Now Romney says he will not attend the convention.   In fact, four of the last five Republican presidential nominees will not be attending.   Only Bob Dole plans to attend -- not Romney, not McCain, neither Bush 41 or 43.

4.  As of midnight, when this post went up, the feeling coming from Republican elites felt like it was teetering and could go either way.   RNC Chair Reince Priebus, Dick Cheney, Rick Perry, and several senators have said they will support Trump.   But Ryan's hesitancy seems to be emboldening others to speak their minds.  And this was before we felt the effects of Trump's latest bombshell from a CNBC interview, where he horrified anyone with basic knowledge of finance by talking about renegotiating the national debt, meaning that he would treat government bonds as though they were a liability in a bankruptcy settlement, paying less than full value.   U. S. government bonds are considered almost sacred, unsurpassed as a safe investment.   This will cause a global shock wave that makes his threats about NATO or Saudi Arabia seem like minor tremors. 

5.  Attention turns to Trump's potential VP choice:    Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Chris Christie have said they would be willing to serve.    Maine's controversial governor Paul LePage has volunteered to serve in a Trump cabinet.

6.  Trump has said he expects to do very well, because "everybody likes me."   But the Rolling Stones band has joined a record number of music artists (including Adele, Neil Young,  Steven Tyler, and REM's Michael Stype) that have demanded that he "immediately cease" using their music at his rallies.

7.  On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton's campaign has already released two exceptionally effective tv ads, each simply using Trump's own words and what other Republicans have said about him to show his extremism, his divisiveness, his contradictions, and his rashness.

8The Koch brothers, who largely bank-rolled the Tea Party movement, have said that they may sit out the presidential contest entirely -- or they might even contribute to Hillary Clinton's campaign.  In an informal survey of six other big conservative donors, none would commit to donating to a Trump campaign.  Then a day later, on Friday, fellow billionaire Sheldon Adelson says Trump won the primary "fair and square;" and he will support him.

It's been a busy week.  In the time-line of presidential politics, with the conventions yet to come, it's still a long time until November.  Anything can happen.   But right now the GOP seems in disarray, to put it mildly.    Behind the scenes, many think the best shot is to just expect to lose the White House and work to re-elect Republicans down-ticket.

Ralph

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