Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Why Bernie plans to continue to the convention

Indiana is less a make or break primary for either Clinton or Sanders than it seems to be for the Republicans, who set it up to award a big chunk of delegates to the overall vote getter in the state.   A big winner could take all the delegates.  For Democrats, it's less of a big prize, since the delegates will be awarded proportionally.

Clinton's lead in the Indiana polls has narrowed to about 4% -- and polling in Indiana has been unreliable enough that Sanders might even win the state.   But, even if he does, it would neither be a big breakout for him or seal-the-deal for her -- because of the proportional delegates.

Neither can win at this point with pledged delegates alone, and super-delegates are not bound, although many have voluntarily pledged support to Clinton.   Sanders' strategy is to flip some of those to him and then take the majority at the convention -- saying they should be willing to cast their vote based on what the voters want at the time of the convention.

Bernie Sanders wants to keep going:   he has easy access to small donor contributions that keep on giving.   So he can continue to the convention.   Yes, he would like to win;   but more than that, he is starting a progressive revolutionIt doesn't end with one election.   He wants influence and input into the nominee's positions, the rules of the convention, the platform, how future elections are conducted.

Clinton seems to have given up trying to urge Sanders to quit and instead decided to co-exist with him, while she pivots to the general election, preparing to run against Donald Trump.  She will make a mistake if she thinks all she has to do is get Sanders to deliver his voters to her.   No, Sanders has already said she will have to woo them herself -- give them some reason to vote for her.   He seems determined to have a vote, not a coronation, at the convention.

Ralph

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