Saturday, September 24, 2016

New poll good Clinton news -- yet questions remain

An NBC/WSJ/Telemundo national poll of likely voters was released on Sept. 21, with both two-way and four-way results:
     Clinton      48%          Clinton     43%
     Trump       41%           Trump      37%
                                             Johnson     9%
                                             Stein             2%

Demographic breakdown is interesting.   Among Latino voters, Clinton leads with 65% to Trump's 17%.    But compare Trump's 17% with George Bush's Latino support in 2004 of 44%.   And McCain's 31% in 2008 and Romney's 27% in 2012.   Trump's getting 10 points less than Romney, who lost.

It's reassuring to show how Trump is faring poorly, even among other demographic groups in which Republicans do well.  Unlike the above figures, these numbers are not percentages of the total vote, but the lead Trump has over Clinton, compared with the lead Romney had over Obama in 2012.

                                      Romney          Trump
White men                    +27%              +13%
Non-college men       +26%               +18%
Conservatives             +65%               +55%
Republicans                 +87%              +77%

He's averaging about 10% less support overall in these groups than the candidate who lost four years ago.  The question that remains for me:   with these encouraging numbers for Clinton, why are the one-on-one polls still as close as they are?

On issues asked about, Trump leads only on handling the economy, while Clinton leads on handling all other issues.   However, this baffles me.   On honesty:   Trump leads 41% to Clinton 31%.   How can people believe that he is more honest when he lies so effortlessly . . . about everything?    Perhaps those who only listen to FoxNews and right-wing radio really don't know that he is lying, because the interviewers do too.


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