Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Prediction the outcome -- Hillary wins. Maybe bigly

As I usually do, I'll be watching the election returns with my family -- and away from my computer.   So I'll post my post-election reactions a day later.    But I'm confident enough to make this prediction:

Hillary Clinton will win the presidency with at least 273 electoral votes (270 needed).   She can get there even if she loses Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa -- and if she wins either New Hampshire or Nevada.  If she loses all six of those states, or a comparable number, then it's possible  for Trump to win.

Or to put it another way:    Trump would have to win:  all the "comfortably red" and the "lean red" states;   plus all of the battleground states:  Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire.  No polls suggests that he can do that.

In reality, I am expecting that Clinton will actually win with at least 323 electoral votes -- and perhaps more than that.    To get 323, she would need another 50 EVs from the battleground states.   And she has several different pathways to do get 323, unlike Trump who would have to win them all, just to get 270.

To get that supermajority -- dare we call it a landslide? -- Clinton could get there by adding Nevada (6), Florida (29), and North Carolina (15).   Or substitute Ohio (18) for NC and Iowa (8) for NV (6).   Or add states listed as "lean red" but would be possible if Clinton wins in a landslide:   Arizona (11), Georgia (16).    Take all of those and she would have as many as 426.    Stop !!!!   Let's don't tempt fate to deflate our optimism.   It could turn out to be very close.   But Clinton will win.  

I know there were last minutes polls suggesting worry about New Hampshire and Michigan and Florida.   But, with the big turnout of Latinos in Nevada (6 EVs), she's probably got that one in her safe basket;   so she could afford to lose NH (4 EVs).  The Latino turnout was also huge in Florida.

But , , , we'll see.   I'm paying little attention to polls in this last week;    they tend to be all over the map this close to such an unpredictable election.


PS:   We'll debate for a long time what lasting effects Trump's candidacy will have had on our country.   I suggest there will be at least one word added to the language:   "Bigly."

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