Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Jon Ossoff scores big win in GA-06

There was nothing close about this election to fill an empty congressional seat vacated by President Trump's appointee to be in his cabinet.   Noting, that is, except whether Jon Ossoff would win it outright tonight, or whether there will be a runoff in June.   Meaning whether Jon got over 50% in a crowded field of 18 candidates.

Pretty amazing, given that the last time a Democrat held the office, Jimmy Carter was president.  So here comes a 30 year old Wunderkind who has never run for office before -- encouraged to run by none other than John Lewis.

As I'm writing this just before midnight, here's the tally:   Jon Ossoff (D) 50%, Karen Handel (R) 18%, followed by two other Republicans with 10% each.

But here's the thing.   Only 54% of the precincts have reported.  GA-06 is made up of parts of three counties.   Cobb is the more conservative, DeKalb more liberal, and Fulton more mixed but not as conservative as Cobb.

All the precincts in Cobb and in DeKalb have reported.  All the outstanding ones are in Fulton.  As of midnight, only 19 of 116 have given results, according to the Associated Press reporting.   Fulton County is traditionally slow in counting and reporting.

According to my reading, then, Jon's results should improve as the remaining votes come in -- and it's almost half.   The whole of Fulton County would be reliably liberal, but District 06 cuts across the northern suburbs.  So it's hard to predict -- except that if he keeps above 50% in Fulton, he should win it.   From the 19 precincts so far, he's getting 55%.

At the least, Jon Ossoff goes into a runoff with a decisive lead -- and the question will be whether the Republicans can unite behind Karen Handel.


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