Political scientists discuss the future of democracy

Vox.com's Sean Illing reported on a very important conference held at Yale last week, where a group of top political scientists discussed the state of democracy in America.   According to Illing, ". . . nearly everyone agreed [that] American democracy is eroding on multiple fronts -- socially, culturally, and economically."

And yet, no one thought that we are near the end or that it's too late to solve the problems.   At least, so far, our governing systems of checks and balances are holding.    Still, there was a sense that "alarm bells are ringing."

One professor of politics (at both Harvard and Princeton) said "Democracies die because of deliberate decisions made by human beings. . . . [People in power] become disconnected from the citizenry. . . .  They push policies that benefit themselves and harm the broader population.   Do that long enough . . . and you'll cultivate an angry, divided society that pulls apart at the seams."'

But -- I want to ask the good professor -- isn't that exactly where we are?

Adam Przeworski, a democratic theorist at New York University, said that "democracies thrive so long as people believe they can improve their lot in life."  This basic belief has been 'an essential ingredient of Western civilization during the past 200 years.'"

But Illing also points out that "fewer and fewer Americans believe this is true" -- i.e. that they can improve their lives.   This is due to wage stagnation, growing inequalities, automation, and a shrinking labor market.   "Americans are deeply pessimistic about the future."   In 1970, 90% of 30 year olds in American were better off than their parents at the same age.  In 2012, only 50% were.   "Numbers like this cause people to lose faith in the system.  What you get is a spike in extremism and a retreat from the political center.   This leads to declines in voter turnout and, consequently, more opportunities for fringe parties and candidates."

Beyond polarization, Przeworski suggested that "something more profound is going on."   He believes that American democracy isn't collapsing so much as deteriorating.  "Our divisions are not merely political but have deep roots in society.  The system has become too rigged and too unfair, and most people have no real faith in it."

This includes basic components of democracy like commitment to rule of law, a free press, the separation of powers, and to the basic liberties of speech, assembly, religion, and property.   Daniel Ziblatt of Harvard calls these "the soft guardrails of democracy."   Research has shown that Americans "are not as committed to these norms as you might expect."

It goes all the way to the top.  Our current president has little knowledge of what our Constitution mandates and what rights it guarantees.   He bangs the drums for building up our military power, but is unconcerned that our collective security agencies have determined that Russia really did hack into our electoral system -- and we fully expect them to do it again in our next election.   Instead of caring about that, Trump set up a phony commission to investigate the virtually non-existing "voter fraud," led by the nation's zealot-in-chief Kris Kobach, who has made a career as Kansas's Attorney General, trying to suppress minority voting and opposing immigration.

Many of us think that Trump and some of his administration would really like to just ignore -- or better yet, do away with -- all this messy democracy stuff.  Just let our wannabe-king decide everything and order it to be done, his way.

But, back to facts.  In a survey cited at the conference, 18% of Americans agreed that a military-led government would be a "fairly good" idea.

Harvard's Daniel Ziblatt identified two "master norms" of a democracy:  (1) mutual toleration, meaning we accept the basic legitimacy of our opponents:  and (2) institutional forbearance, meaning politicians responsibly wield the power of the institutions they're elected to control.   He says we are "failing miserably" on #1, and we're hardly better on #2.  Ziblatt continues:

"Most obviously, there's Donald Trump, who has dispensed with one democratic norm after another.   He's fired an FBI director in order to undercut an investigation into his campaign's possible collusion with Moscow;  and he has . . .  regularly attacked the free press and refused to divest himself of his business interests.

"The Republican Party, with few exceptions, has tolerated these violations in the hope that they might advance their agenda.   But it's about a lot more than Republicans capitulating to Trump."   He mentions the unprecedented blocking of Obama's nomination of a Supreme Court nominee and endangering the nation's credit rating by shutting down the government to try to defeat Obamacare.   He sums up:  "American democracy is increasingly less anchored by norms and traditions -- and history suggests that's a sign of democratic decay."

Duke University professor of economics and politics, Timur Kuran, argues a somewhat different point.   He says:  "the real danger isn't that we no longer trust the government but that we no longer trust each other."

He says we are divided into separate "intolerant communities," where each defines itself by opposition to the other.   "They live in different worlds, desire different things, and share almost nothing in common.  One group, which he calls "identitarian" activists "concerned with issues like racial/gender equality;  the other group he calls the "nativist" coalition made up of people suspicious of immigration and cultural change.

Kuran continues:  "The practical consequence of this is a politics marred by tribalism.  Worse, because the fault lines run so deep, every political contest becomes an intractable existential drama, with each side convinced the other is not just wrong but a mortal enemy."

Again, some statistics:  In 1960, 5% of Republicans and 4% of Democrats objected to the idea of their children marrying across political lines.   In 2010, it's 46% of Republicans and 33% of Democrats.    Pew Research studies show something similar in their finding that in 2014, 36% of Republicans and Republican leaners say that Democratic policies "threaten the nation."  And 27% of Democrats say the same thing about Republicans.  Pew says that those numbers have doubled since 1994.  And "it's not merely that we disagree about issues;  it's that we believe the other side is a grievous threat to the republic."

Illing ends his report on this conference of political scientists on a pessimistic note:   "Something has cracked.  Citizens have lost faith in the system.   The social compact is broken.  So now we're left to stew in our racial and cultural resentments, which paved the way for a demagogue like Trump.

"Bottom line:  I was already pretty cynical about the trajectory of American democracy when I arrived at the conference, and I left feeling justified in that cynicism.   Our problems are deep and broad and stretch back decades, and the people who study democracy closest can only tell us what's wrong.  They can't tell us what ought to be done."

*     *     *

Well, yes, that is a real downer.   But it mirrors what I feel these days.

I do know one thing:   Donald Trump may not have created this, but he definitely makes it worse -- because he revels in the adoration of even this small base of angry, unthinking, right-wing people who want someone to stoke their anger and to promise them easy solutions.   Trump is just the demagogue for that job.  But I don't know what's going to happen when that small band of "lock her up" shouters realize that he can't (and never intended to) come though for them.

My best hope is that Robert Mueller's investigation will reveal some things so bad (money laundering, criminal financial dealings with oligharchs with mob connections, as well as obvious obstruction of justice), that Republicans in congress cannot not impeach him.    But . . . what then?

Ralph