Friday, November 10, 2017

Why do we have more gun deaths ?

Why does the U.S. have so many more mass shootings than any other country?   That question has been asked thousands of times, and been batted down by the NRA and even sane gun owners . . . thousands of times.

Some have offered explanations -- we are an unusually violent culture -- or blamed it on racial divisions fraying the bonds of society, or on lack of proper mental health care.   All of these have been shot down, when you look at comparative data.

Let's substitute some data for opinion.   The New York Time's Max Fisher and Josh Keller recently reported on a 2015 data analysis done by Adam Lankford, a professor at the University of Alabama.

Lankford found that, worldwide, "a country's rate of gun ownership correlated with the odds that it would experience mass shooting."   And no other factors come close to that correlation.    It even holds if you exclude the U.S. from the data -- and just look at other countries -- the correlation is still there:   higher rate of gun ownership and the increased likelihood of mass shootings.

Mass shootings do not correlate with overall homicide rates, with mental illness issues, suicide rates, racial diversity, prevalence of video game playing.

Gun homicide rates are a special case.  Like mass shootings, the U.S. has a very high rate of gun homicides, but not of crime overall.    The U.S. rate is 33 per million, compared to 5 per million for Canada and 0.7 per million for Britain.  But the study also shows that Americans are not simply more prone to crime than other developed countries;  it's just that here it's more likely to be lethal, as shown by a 1999 lankmark study at UC Berkeley.   As the authors put it:  "A New Yorker is just as likely to be robbed as a Londoner . . . but the New Yorker is 54 times more likely to be killed in the process."

And Fisher and Keller continue:  "More gun ownership corresponds with more gun murders across virtually every axis . . . and gun control legislation tends to reduce gun murders, according to a recent analysis of 130 studies from 10 countries."

"In 2013, American gun-related deaths included 21,175 suicides, 11,208 homicides and 505 deaths caused by an accidental discharge.  That same year in Japan, a country with one-third America's population, guns were involved in only 13 deaths."

There is another factor besides the sheer numbers of guns.   Switzerland has the second-highest gun ownership in developed countries but a relatively much lower rate of gun homicide, 7.7 per million, compared to our 33 per million.  As the authors explain:

"Swiss gun laws are more stringent, setting a higher bar for securing and keeping a license, for selling guns and for the types of guns that can be owned.  Such laws reflect more than just tighter restrictions.  They imply a different way of thinking about guns, as something that citizens must affirmatively earn the right to own.

"After Britain had a mass shooting in 1987, the country instituted strict gun control laws.   So did Australia after a 1996 incident.   But the United States has repeatedly faced the same calculus and determined that relatively unregulated gun ownership is worth the cost to society.   That choice, more than any statistic or regulation, is what most sets the United States apart. . . .

"In retrospect Sandy Hook marked the end of the U.S. gun control debate," wrote a British journalist.  "Once America decided killing children was bearable, it was over."
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I cannot improve on the sheer, apt shock of that statement.   It is plainly -- and shamingly -- true.

Ralph


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