Khamenei

Three important bits of news from Iran via Nico Pitney and my thoughts about where things stand:

1. There now appear to be definite plans for a general strike. Word is being spread to prepare for food shortages, no public transportation, and money shortage; expect that the government will cut off electric power.

2. It's been reported that Rafsanjani has a letter signed by 40 members of the 86 member Assembly of Experts calling for the annulment of the election.

3. Also reported but not verified: That Supreme Leader Khamenei has lung cancer and that the core argument is not just about the election but about the system of government, which started as a revolution to establish a republic but has become more like a monarchy. This is especially focused because Khamenei wants his son to replace him; and he rigged the election, thinking he would have less resistance from Ahmanedijad than from Mousavi.

Let's suppose they do annul the election, have another and Mousavi wins. It's uncertain how different Mousavi's policies would be unless they change the system of government. However, he is a very different man from Ahmanedijad, and he now is the leader of a grassroots movement for reform in which the young urban, educated class is a large portion. They want reform of social restrictions, and they want better relations with the Western world.

Also -- a nullification of the election would also mean loss of power for Khamenei. This is probably the end of his supreme control. So it would not just be Mousavi in the weak position of president with the strong Khamenei in control, but likely a change in Supreme Leader as well.

A general strike would be the logical, and probably effective, next step that the people can do to push the leadership councils to replace Khamenei and call for new elections.

All in all, I do not think this toothpaste is going to go back into the tube. The only way would be much more massive repressive measures than they've done yet, and it does not sound like Khamenei has enough support among the leaders for that.

Ralph