All along, Obama has insisted that any plan he accepts has to have an exit strategy. But here's the dilemma . . .
The only real exit strategy -- unilateral disengagement -- is political suicide. According to Froomkin,
Up until a few months ago, Obama evidently thought he had one. Presumably, it involved handing the country back to Afghan President Hamid Karzai's stable, united government in fairly short order.But then Karzai's re-election turned into a fiasco, exposing Afghanistan's still-deep divisions and still-profound corruption -- and making it abundantly clear to everyone that there will be no exit under those conditions, certainly not anytime soon.
This is complicated by the fact that Obama has called Afghanistan "the war of necessity," as opposed to Iraq, which he called "the war of choice." So he has sort of painted himself into a corner. If he pulls us out unilaterally, without some way of declaring it a win, he will be portrayed widely and derisively as just giving up and "not having the courage to stand up for America."
And here is where our current poisoned political atmosphere makes this an anathema. The public by a large margin opposes continuing the war, by 57% to 39%. In a recent CNN poll, 49% favor reducing the number of troops, while 28% want to pull them out immediately.
But that doesn't seem to carry much weight with Republicans and conservative Democrats, to say nothing of HolyJoe Lieberman. They seem more interested in exploiting this dilemma for political gain, never mind public opinion, the good of the country, or what the American people want.
And the public opposition to continuing the war does not have the fervor of the anti-Viet Nam movement. There are too many other pressing needs: jobs, finance system regulation, health care reform, climate legislation right now.
As much as I would like to see Obama stand up on principle and not worry about the political fallout, that would probably mean losing the political capital to get his ambitious domestic programs -- which are just as vital -- through an obstructionistic congress.
This must be an enormous weight Obama is carrying. But I don't know anyone more capable of making the right choice.
Ralph
Joe Biden might be more capable.
ReplyDeleteBut you're right on all counts.
There also will never be widespread public activism because we have a volunteer Army, so the military will stand behind even bad decisions. Little questioning from within.
rk
If we still had the draft, we would have been out of there long ago. In fact, we probably wouldn't even have gone into Iraq.
ReplyDeleteThe volunteer army is, at best, a mixed blessing.