November 2010

What will happen in the November elections? Will the Republican noise machine be able to sell their lies and smear the Democrats as socialist, godless, totalitarian, deficit-exploding, big spenders?

I don't think so. Here's why:

I think this election will be about two things: the economy (mainly jobs) and competence.

1. Although unemployment remained high at 9.7%, the job situation has turned the corner. The hemorrhage has been stopped. There were 162,000 non-farm jobs added last month -- and the increase was true in every major industry except financial services. Manufacturing, construction, retail. "They're all hiring," according to the New York Times.

2. Most of the benefits of health care reform will not have taken effect by November, but there is an immediate intangible benefit to passing the bill. As flawed as it is, it was ultimately a test of whether Obama and Pelosi could get it done, or whether the Repubs could defeat them. And they got it done.

Do the Repubs really want to campaign on the promise of repeal? Take away insurance coverage for sick children?

If, in the next few months, the Democrats can also pass financial regulatory legislation, that will be another major demonstration of competency and good sense.

In addition, Obama shows his competence every time he opens his mouth and reveals his deep knowledge of every nook and cranny of government, in both domestic and foreign affairs.

There will of course be large numbers who will buy the Limbaugh-Beck-Boehner lies, but there is also a silent majority (to borrow a phrase from the other side's past) that wants a president who can speak articulately and with deep knowledge and who can get things done in spite of the paralyzing partisanship in Congress.

The Democrats have to campaign on these two points: that their economic plan is better than what the Republicans want and that the Republicans were the obstructionists that stood in the way of progress.

So, I am hopeful -- back in my optimistic mode. And we still have six months for things to get even better.

Ralph