A more optimistic article about the election is by Richard North Patterson, whose thesis is that we're not to worry too much. Demographics, plus Trump's own capacity to turn off as many voters as he attracts, will favor the Democrats,
1. About Trump's himself as a candidate, Patterson says this:
Trump has managed to gain an unfavorable rating of 60% (even higher among women). Yes, Hillary Clinton also has very high unfavorables, but that's after 25 years of being pummeling about anything anyone can find, or imagine about the Clintons. He says: "Everyone inclined to dislike Clinton already does." By contrast, Trump's capacity to appall is an ever-expanding possibility. . . . Further, the Democrats "will be as merciless as Republicans were spineless" in exploiting Trump's lack of knowledge and judgment.
"[T]he Clinton campaign will assault persuadable voters with evidence of Trump’s narcissism, vulgarity, ignorance and instability — not to mention his callousness and failures as a businessman. . . ."
2. Then there is the problem of demographics. The Republican party's own "autopsy analysis" after the 2012 loss resulted in a report that called for an outreach to women, Hispanics, the young. As Patterson says:
"Trump obviously read the memo backwards. While his triumph in the primaries proves that the brain-dead GOP establishment did not know its own base, the party did grasp one basic demographic truth — there aren’t enough old or angry white folks left alive to elect a president by themselves. This gives rise to a fatal conundrum. Trump may expand his party’s share of shrinking demographic groups, but he will shrink its share of those which are expanding. . . .
"With Trump’s considerable help, the GOP is not simply dividing — it is fracturing. Its various constituencies — working people; conservative ideologues; rich donors; Chamber of Commerce types; foreign-policy hawks; diehard evangelicals; and more moderate suburbanites — resemble a bad marriage among polygamists. No one can figure out who to divorce first."
Patterson then ticks off the various groups and what will turn them off. Some consider Trump unfit for the office -- for a variety of reasons: temperament, lack of knowledge about government or the issues, dangerous as a commander-in-chief. True conservatives will find him too ideologically erratic.
In contrast, Clinton's biggest worry is that Sanders' progressives and young people may not support her. But with the support of Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (especially as VP) -- and recognizing that the alternate is a Trump presidency -- will bring most of them to vote for the first woman president.
So, what about the electoral college map, according to Patterson? In the last six presidential elections, there are 19 states and the D.C. that Democrats have won every time (242 electoral votes), while Republicans have consistently won 13 (102 electoral votes). Those 32 states will probably vote the same way, no matter whom their party nominates.
It takes 270 electoral votes to win. Thus, beyond these sure-thing states, Democrats need only another 28 more; Republicans need 168. In 2012, Romney won only another 104. In recent elections, these states have been the swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.
1. About Trump's himself as a candidate, Patterson says this:
Trump has managed to gain an unfavorable rating of 60% (even higher among women). Yes, Hillary Clinton also has very high unfavorables, but that's after 25 years of being pummeling about anything anyone can find, or imagine about the Clintons. He says: "Everyone inclined to dislike Clinton already does." By contrast, Trump's capacity to appall is an ever-expanding possibility. . . . Further, the Democrats "will be as merciless as Republicans were spineless" in exploiting Trump's lack of knowledge and judgment.
"[T]he Clinton campaign will assault persuadable voters with evidence of Trump’s narcissism, vulgarity, ignorance and instability — not to mention his callousness and failures as a businessman. . . ."
2. Then there is the problem of demographics. The Republican party's own "autopsy analysis" after the 2012 loss resulted in a report that called for an outreach to women, Hispanics, the young. As Patterson says:
"Trump obviously read the memo backwards. While his triumph in the primaries proves that the brain-dead GOP establishment did not know its own base, the party did grasp one basic demographic truth — there aren’t enough old or angry white folks left alive to elect a president by themselves. This gives rise to a fatal conundrum. Trump may expand his party’s share of shrinking demographic groups, but he will shrink its share of those which are expanding. . . .
"With Trump’s considerable help, the GOP is not simply dividing — it is fracturing. Its various constituencies — working people; conservative ideologues; rich donors; Chamber of Commerce types; foreign-policy hawks; diehard evangelicals; and more moderate suburbanites — resemble a bad marriage among polygamists. No one can figure out who to divorce first."
Patterson then ticks off the various groups and what will turn them off. Some consider Trump unfit for the office -- for a variety of reasons: temperament, lack of knowledge about government or the issues, dangerous as a commander-in-chief. True conservatives will find him too ideologically erratic.
In contrast, Clinton's biggest worry is that Sanders' progressives and young people may not support her. But with the support of Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (especially as VP) -- and recognizing that the alternate is a Trump presidency -- will bring most of them to vote for the first woman president.
So, what about the electoral college map, according to Patterson? In the last six presidential elections, there are 19 states and the D.C. that Democrats have won every time (242 electoral votes), while Republicans have consistently won 13 (102 electoral votes). Those 32 states will probably vote the same way, no matter whom their party nominates.
It takes 270 electoral votes to win. Thus, beyond these sure-thing states, Democrats need only another 28 more; Republicans need 168. In 2012, Romney won only another 104. In recent elections, these states have been the swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.
Hillary Clinton could win with the Democrat-reliable states plus Florida alone. Or Ohio and one other swing state. Obama carried all seven swing states, twice. In some states that Romney carried in 2012, increasing minority populations make them more favorable to Democrats.
Look at the Hispanic vote. Bush carried 44%, Trump's support fell to 27%. And Trump has an 80% unfavorable rating among Hispanics. Romney got the white women vote by 56%. Trump's high unfavorables with women will inevitably cut that down.
Trump's counter-argument is that he can bring in alienated white and blue collar workers in industrial states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. But Patterson points out that these nominal Democrats and independents have already been voting Republican. In addition, he contends that there simply are not enough of them. Obama carried Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, combined, by almost a million vote margin. And they all have significant minority populations. "Trump is likely to repel as many persuadable voters as he charms."
Patterson agrees that Trump should "not be underestimated. But the GOP has become that special place where sanity goes to die. . . . Hillary Clinton will be a far tougher opponent for Trump than the irresolute crew he faced in the primaries. . . . [and] He will be no match for her in debate, and nothing he throws at her — however personal — will knock her off balance. In the grind of this campaign, no matter his gift for insult, Clinton will wear him down."
Patterson's final prediction: Clinton will win every swing state, plus North Carolina for 347 electoral votes to Trump's 191. If she also takes Arizona and Missouri, it'll be 368 to 170.
That's reassuring, for sure. But I'm not going to relax until it's all over and I see Bill Clinton holding the Bible for his wife as she swears that she, the first woman president of the United States, will uphold its Constitution.
Ralph
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