Thursday, November 3, 2016

The state of the election five days ahead

Josh Marshall reports a new Marquette University poll (the most respected poll for Wisconsin) showing Hillary Clinton leading by 6% in Wisconsin.   Why is this so important?   Because Trump has a slight lead in Ohio, and it's too close to call in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina.

Here's the payoff according to Marshall.  Even if Trump wins Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada -- the battleground states where his chances are best -- he would still be short of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the election.   He has to win one of the states considered safe for Clinton.  So this poll showing Wisconsin still holding strong for her is good news.

Even if Clinton wins only Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado and Pennsylvania of the battleground states -- and she has definite leads in all of them -- she still wins the election.   With Wisconsin still strongly in her camp, as this poll shows, it's looking good.


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