Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Pence: US ready to talk with North Korea

Scott Rogin, reporting in the Washington Post, helped put into perspective the U.S. position vis a vis South Korea in light of its open welcome to the North Korean delegation -- mostly featuring Kim Jong Un's sister and close adviser.   Here are some excerpts of Rogin's article:


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"Despite the mutual chilliness between U.S. and North Korean officials in South Korea last week, behind the scenes real progress was made toward a new diplomatic opening that could result in direct talks without preconditions . . ..   This window of opportunity was born out of a new understanding reached between the White House and the president of South Korea.

"Vice President Pence, in an interview aboard Air Force Two on the way home from the Winter Olympics . . . [explained that] the United States and South Korea agreed on terms for further engagement with North Korea -- first by the South Koreans and potentially with the United State soon thereafter."


Rogin then explained that the costly sanctions against the North will continue, but "the Trump administration is now willing to sit down and talk with the regime while that pressure campaign is ongoing. . . . [i.e.] maximum pressure and engagement at the same time" . . . .


Pence added:   "So the maximum pressure campaign is going to contionue and intensify.   But if you want to talk, we'll talk."


Rogin continues, saying that Pence and Moon worked this out during their bilateral meetings on Thursday and Saturday evening.  "Before these meetings, the Trump and Moon administrations were not aligned on whether Seoul's new engagement with Pyongyang should continue after the Olympics end."


But, according to what Pence told Rogin, he (Pence, in daily contact with President Trump) told Moon that the international community "must not repeat the mistakes of the past by giving North Korea concessions in exchange for talking. . . .   Moon assured Pence he would tell the North Koreans clearly that they would not get economic or diplomatic benefits for just talking -- only for taking concrete steps toward denuclearization.   Based on that assurance, Pence felt confident he could endorse post-Olympic engagement with Pyongyang."


The big difference here is that, in the past, the Trump position has been that steps toward denuclearization must happen prior to even beginning talks.   Now our position is that this is not a pre-condition but, rather, part of the negotiations to be worked out during talks.


Even if this is nothing more than the U.S. agreement to talk about having talks, that is a concession from Trump's previous position.  It is the one Rex Tillerson voiced several weeks ago that, at the time, put him at odds with the president.


Whether the North will accept this, or will have concessions it demands -- such as a delay in joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises in the reagion -- remains to be seen.


Rogin concludes:  "The White House's endorsement of the concept of initial talks without preconditions is hugely significant.  It provides a real fix to the break between Washington and Seoul.  It also increases the chances the United States and North Korea will soon begin a process that represents the best hope of preventing a devastating international conflict."



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Yesterday, I was both critical and scornful of Pence for raining on South Korea's Olympic unity parade.   This shows that real important progress was also going on behind the scenes between us and South Korea.

I still don't see why Pence couldn't have been less rude -- but, if the end result of this concession by the U.S. moves us in a diplomatic direction and away from bomb-threatening, then that is the important thing.

Ralph

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