The morning after the summit

As far as it went, and on the terms that President Trump had set, this summit meeting was a limited, but definite, success.   A beginning, with a commitment to continue the process.

First, and foremost, let's acknowledge that talking is better than fighting.  And talking face to face in a planned meeting is better than all the tweeted bellicosity that we had between Trump and Kim until just a few months ago.

For Kim Jong Un, it was a success, because he got what he has long craved:  recognition as a national leader on the world stage, as well as the possibility of exchanging some of his nuclear weapons for peace and economic growth for his country.

For Trump, he got what he most wanted:   a grand, expanded photo op of a daredevil plan that could make him look presidential -- depending on the outcome.   So much was left out and left to be worked out.

For example, there is the grand, vague statement about "working toward complete denuclearization."   But it does not mention the all-important "verification."    Trump said, when questioned in his press conference, that verification was talked about -- as he also said that human rights issues were talked about.  But neither is mentioned in the document they signed.  And we know how easily Trump lies, when a reporter asks him "if" something was done.   He offered no reason for us to believe what he's saying on either count.

Still, he has tasked Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with taking the next step of fleshing all this out, as well as talking with our other allies in the region.  Much as I disagree with his policy positions, Pompeo is a smart man and a good manager (unlike many of Trump's cabinet secretaries).   He is chiefly responsible for the preliminary work toward this summit.   But will he stand up to Trump when he does something unwise?

The only big surprise that came in Trump's press conference was his saying that the U.S. will end the twice-annual military exercises with South Korea.   This had been mentioned before the announcement only in this context:   several analysts on MSNBC agreed that one possible goal -- formally ending the Korean War with a peace treaty -- was risky;  because it would remove the legal rationale for the U.S. keeping troops in South Korea.   No one hinted that he might just give that away without anything in return.

And now we find that Trump himself has as a goal "bringing our troops home" from South Korea.   He gave no voice to concerns that South Korea has and why the troops are there.   It's not just that the war isn't officially over, so we keep troops there.  It's that South Korea has felt threatened by North Korea's non-nuclear, military might right there on their mutual border.

Seoul, a city of about 20 million people, is only some 35 miles from the border.   Just across the border, the North has thousands and thousands of large mortars aimed at the South's capital city, ready to fire on the city.

Here's what our president thinks when he contemplates that scene just across the border from Seoul:    What a place to build some great condos.

In typical Trumpian fashion, Trump gave away the joint military exercises -- without even discussing it with South Korea's president Moon, who was the one who initiated this thaw between North Korea and the U.S.   South Korea is an important ally of the U.S.   Trump unilaterally decided to make this drastic change without even a warning.   Does this mean he will cancel the exercises scheduled for August -- just two months away?  President Moon was quoted as saying that "We will have to try to find out precisely what President Trump means."

In all, most analysts I respect are seeing this as better than escalating insults or outright war -- but also seeing it as Kim having come out the winner and Trump having given away too much without getting anything in return.    No details or plans about the denuclearization, no timetable, no benchmarks, nothing about inspections or verification.   And, when questioned by the reporters, Trump didn't even seem to understand the significance of what he had done.

As usual, with Trump, it's all about the appearance of winning;  not much about substance.

Ralph

PS:   Tuesday evening.   There are reports that state-run TV in North Korea is saying that President Trump agreed to lift sanctions against North Korea.   Let's see what Trump's response to that is.    Frankly, I find myself about equally willing to believe Kim and Trump.    One of them is lying, and I don't know which.   Or this may just be propaganda that Kim is telling his people.