Trump has apparently moved his initial insistence on "complete denuclearization" to talk of offering "unprecedented security guarantees" to North Korea, which Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said will "go further than a 2005 agreement in which the U.S. pledged not to attack North Korea with nuclear or conventional weapons."
The meeting will begin at 9 am on Tuesday (9 pm Monday in Washington), and it will be a one-on-one meeting, with translators, but no aids or advisers. Only after this initial personal session will aides and advisers join the meeting.
And remember that Trump has great confidence in his powers of sensing the other person. He told reporters before leaving Washington Friday morning that he would know "within one minute" how this is going to go. He also said he didn't need much preparation, "because it's all about attitude."
Those photo-op comments do not give the whole picture however. As The Guardian says:
"'The discussions between the United States and North Korea are ongoing and have moved more quickly than expected,' the White House said. However, there are doubts over whether Trump can persuade Kim to make a clear statement on his intention to dismantle and surrender his nuclear programme. . . .
"'It is the case we are prepared to give security assurances necessary for the North Koreans to engage in . . . denuclearisation,' Pompeo told reporters. 'We are prepared to take actions that will provide them sufficient certainty that they can be comfortable that denuclearisation isn't something that ends badly for them.'
"He added: 'We are prepared to make . . . security assurances that are different, [more] unique than what America has been willing to provide previously. We think this is both necessary and appropriate.' . . .
"The format for the talks is aimed at establishing a personal rapport between the two leaders. . . . Pompeo said he was optimistic that the summit would be a success, but defined success as an agreement that the negotiations should continue [and that] . . . this summit will set the conditions for future talks.
"It was reported that Kim planned to fly back to North Korea in the early afternoon on Tuesday, leaving very little time for actual negotiations. There is still considerable uncertainty about what a deal between the leaders would look like.
"The Pyongyang regime envisages denuclearisation as a gradual and somewhat amorphous process, in which both sides take phased reciprocal steps to defuse tensions with the ultimate but distant goal of nuclear disarmament.
"The Trump administration has previously insisted on 'complete, verifiable, irreversible disarmament' (CVID) of North Korea, with the emphasis on unilateral steps by Pyongyang rewarded by US security assurances. But the president has significantly softened the US negotiating stance in the immediate run-up to the summit, accepting the prospect of open-ended negotiations involving multiple future summits.
"Pompeo muddied the picture further on Monday, . . . saying the US remained 'committed to the complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.' . . . Most observers predict the outcome will be a short and vague statement built around the ambiguous aim of the 'denuclearisation' of the Korean peninsula,' leaving it to later bilateral meetings to negotiate what that would mean in practice."
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Here are some thoughts I have about this:
1. Both leaders want very much to leave Singapore being able to say this was a success -- plus some great photo-ops to show the people back home what an important world leader they are.
2. Both have made concessions. Kim's have been concrete -- destroying and dismantling parts of his nuclear testing site, releasing American prisoners -- as well as has promise of "denuclearization," although his definition is different from ours. Trump's concessions have been lessening his demands for pre-talk committments, plus promises for security and economic assistance in exchange for steps toward denuclearization.
3. Each is going to want to be able to say that he got the advantage in the meeting. Trump -- probably Kim, too -- can't tolerate being thought weak or having been taken advantage of.
4. For all his bluster in Quebec City at the G-7, even Trump has to know that he behaved badly. In fact, I think he did it intentionally -- just to throw his weight around and flaunt his power over our allies. The bully! So leaving in a huff here would only add to that image of him as the immature, demanding child that he is.
5. As for Trump's saying he can size Kim up within one minute just based on his being able to read his attitude: Remember George W. Bush's first meeting with Putin? He said he could see into his soul -- and that he had a good feeling about their relationship. So much for that.
6. Let's hope that they don't reach any further than that bland, final sentence in The Guardian report above, where they predict a vague, general statement about intentions. If they try for anything more detailed, it may end badly.
7. One sticking point down the road is likely going to be Kim's asking that we remove our troops from South Korea. That should be far, far down the road. North Korea has one of the largest armies in the world -- over 1 million.
8. By the time most people read this in the morning, whatever happens between Trump and Kim will likely already have happened. But I'm not staying up til 4 am for Trump's briefing of the press. I wouldn't trust what he says, anyway. So I might as well wait a few hours and read about it. That's what happens when someone destroys his credibility. You can't trust anything he says.
7. One sticking point down the road is likely going to be Kim's asking that we remove our troops from South Korea. That should be far, far down the road. North Korea has one of the largest armies in the world -- over 1 million.
8. By the time most people read this in the morning, whatever happens between Trump and Kim will likely already have happened. But I'm not staying up til 4 am for Trump's briefing of the press. I wouldn't trust what he says, anyway. So I might as well wait a few hours and read about it. That's what happens when someone destroys his credibility. You can't trust anything he says.
Ralph
PS: Monday night: just heard on TV that the joint statement that will be adopted out of the summit has already been agreed to before Trump and Kim even met at the first meeting. So there obviously will be no startling news coming from the meeting.
PS: Monday night: just heard on TV that the joint statement that will be adopted out of the summit has already been agreed to before Trump and Kim even met at the first meeting. So there obviously will be no startling news coming from the meeting.
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