I'm writing this is the last few hours before the debate begins on Sunday night. No fictional drama could have created such suspense and uncertainty about what will happen. And it depends almost totally on one person, Donald Trump.
With his campaign reeling from the outrage, disgust, and defections from Republican insiders and those running for office; with uncertainly even whether Mike Pence is going to abandon the ticket (he cancelled all campaign appearances for the next 48 hours); with the RNC putting on hold all projects having to do with Trump's campaign; with (denied) rumors even that campaign manager Kellyanne Conway is going to quit; with calls from many top Republicans for Trump to withdraw from the race; and with the loose cannon that is Trump himself -- all of that looms over the 90 minutes in St. Louis.
Some are saying that the only thing that can save the Trump's campaign is for him to offer what can be taken as a sincere, contrite apology for his behavior (and not just the tape, but the Kahn family and others he has insulted) -- and then to present a coherent program of economic initiative with details that show he knows what he's talking about.
If he can't do that, then the RNC will likely leave him nominally on the ticket, but withdraw all support from his campaign -- and he has no campaign organization of his own that can take over. The RNC would then turn its attention solely to the down ballot races, hoping to salvage those congressional and state races.
This all hinges on whether Trump can hold it together. Signs of his mood today, his tweets, are not promising. He seems in denial of how strongly Republicans are turning against him. His base is remaining loyal to him, but that is not enough to win the election for him. And he seems very angry at the Republicans who are withdrawing their support. If he lashes out at them during the debate and, as some are predicting, "goes nuclear" on the stage -- then it's all over.
Now let's watch to see what happens. And try to analyze it tomorrow.
Ralph
Monday, October 10, 2016
Clinton wins big in newspaper endorsements. Trump loses the Skittles and Tic Tac endorsements.
Hillary Clinton now has a growing list of important newspaper endorsements: the New York Times, San Francisco Chronicle, Baltimore Sun, Los Angeles Times, Houston Chronicle, New York Daily News, Dallas Morning News, Cincinnati Enquirer, San Diego Union-Tribute, Arizona Republic.
All of those endorsements were made before the Friday bombshell of Trump's taped "locker room" talking about having his way with women, some of which actually amounts to sexual assault. Just in the two days since, the Columbus (Ohio) Dispatch has joined the list. In doing so, it is endorsing a Democrat for the first time in 100 years. Then it was joined by the reddest of red papers in the reddest of red states, Oklahoma, where the Enid News gave an endorsement of Clinton and a denunciation of Trump. The Chicago Sun-Times also joined in with a scathing denunciation of Trump and castigating Republican leaders, saying the party "should drop him cold."
Two monthly news and opinion magazines have endorsed Clinton: The Nation and the Atlantic. Only twice before in its 159 year history has the Atlantic made an endorsement: for Abraham Lincoln and for Lyndon Johnson. They seem to do it only when they feel the nation is in danger -- Lincoln, because the nation was coming apart; and Johnson, because they felt, like now, that his opponent (Barry Goldwater) was a serious danger to the nation. In endorsing Clinton, the Atlantic editors wrote that Donald Trump is "the most ostentaciously unqualified major-party candidate in history."
The only papers of significance that have endorsed Trump are the New York Post, which is owned by Rupert Murdoch, and the New York Observer, which is owned by Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner who is married to Ivanka. And then . . . there's also his endorsement by the National Enquirer, available at your grocery check-out.
On the trivia end -- but, hey, this is the 2016 campaign, so trivia counts -- the Mars, Inc. candy company, maker of Skittles, disavowed Donald Trump, Jr.'s reference to the candy to explain his father's wanting to keep Muslims out. Don, Jr. illustrated his point by saying that, if you had a bowl of Skittles and knew that four of them were poison, you wouldn't want to risk eating any of them, would you?
In the 1995 tape of Trump's "locker room talk" about having his way with women, he had just been making lascivious comments about the attractive young woman who was coming to escort him onto the set of the tv show he was about to do. He's heard on the tape saying he'd better talk some Tic Tac's "in case I start kissing" her. Tic Tac, USA has distanced itself, sending out a tweet saying the company "respects all women" and calls such talk and behavior "completely inappropriate and unacceptable."
Ralph
All of those endorsements were made before the Friday bombshell of Trump's taped "locker room" talking about having his way with women, some of which actually amounts to sexual assault. Just in the two days since, the Columbus (Ohio) Dispatch has joined the list. In doing so, it is endorsing a Democrat for the first time in 100 years. Then it was joined by the reddest of red papers in the reddest of red states, Oklahoma, where the Enid News gave an endorsement of Clinton and a denunciation of Trump. The Chicago Sun-Times also joined in with a scathing denunciation of Trump and castigating Republican leaders, saying the party "should drop him cold."
Two monthly news and opinion magazines have endorsed Clinton: The Nation and the Atlantic. Only twice before in its 159 year history has the Atlantic made an endorsement: for Abraham Lincoln and for Lyndon Johnson. They seem to do it only when they feel the nation is in danger -- Lincoln, because the nation was coming apart; and Johnson, because they felt, like now, that his opponent (Barry Goldwater) was a serious danger to the nation. In endorsing Clinton, the Atlantic editors wrote that Donald Trump is "the most ostentaciously unqualified major-party candidate in history."
The only papers of significance that have endorsed Trump are the New York Post, which is owned by Rupert Murdoch, and the New York Observer, which is owned by Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner who is married to Ivanka. And then . . . there's also his endorsement by the National Enquirer, available at your grocery check-out.
On the trivia end -- but, hey, this is the 2016 campaign, so trivia counts -- the Mars, Inc. candy company, maker of Skittles, disavowed Donald Trump, Jr.'s reference to the candy to explain his father's wanting to keep Muslims out. Don, Jr. illustrated his point by saying that, if you had a bowl of Skittles and knew that four of them were poison, you wouldn't want to risk eating any of them, would you?
In the 1995 tape of Trump's "locker room talk" about having his way with women, he had just been making lascivious comments about the attractive young woman who was coming to escort him onto the set of the tv show he was about to do. He's heard on the tape saying he'd better talk some Tic Tac's "in case I start kissing" her. Tic Tac, USA has distanced itself, sending out a tweet saying the company "respects all women" and calls such talk and behavior "completely inappropriate and unacceptable."
Ralph
Sunday, October 9, 2016
A harsh message to Republicans about 'their' Trump
Jeffrey Young, a senior reporter for Huffington Post, just put up this open letter to Republicans, addressing it specifically to Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, and other leaders.
I had been trying to write something like this, but Jeffrey says it better. So many Republicans are jumping ship, now that this latest revelation crossed some critical line of disgust. But denouncing Trump now is too little, too late to exonerate their responsibility. As Jeffrey says:
"You heard every terrible thing he said. You watched every inexcusable thing he did. You knew Trump is a race-baiting, xenophobic, misogynistic, authoritarian con man. You knew about his insatiable appetite for power, his bottomless need for affirmation, his dangerous impulsiveness and uncontrollable temper. You knew he was a huckster who ruined businesses and lives. You knew he debased your party, and you personally. You knew.
"You knew he waged a racist campaign against the president’s legitimacy. You knew he called immigrants rapists. You knew he advocated forbidding Muslims from American soil. You knew he said a federal judge wasn’t qualified because Mexican blood flowed through his veins. You knew he besmirched the parents of a dead soldier. You knew he mocked prisoners of war. You knew he courted white supremacists. You knew he admires dictators. You knew he incited violence. You knew he lies ― blatantly, shamelessly, ceaselessly.
"You knew all of that, and you asked Americans to elect him president anyway. Shame on you. You knew.
"Your condemnations are and have always been empty. Your sudden rush to abandon Trump ― after what’s merely the most recently uncovered manifestation of his hatred for women ― is motivated by the same venal cowardice that led you to support him in the first place.
"You knew Hillary Clinton isn’t the monstrous caricature you spent decades depicting. You knew she is ― like each and every one of you ― an ordinary politician, in all the ways that word has positive and negative connotations. You knew she would govern in a perfectly normal way.
"You knew this, but you told voters she was more dangerous than Trump. More evil. A greater threat to the republic. And this, after so many of you spent the presidential primary campaign warning the U.S. that Trump is exactly who he appears to be. But you fell in line. You knew, and you endorsed him anyway. . . .
"Your voters elevated Trump nearly to the White House, and he may yet make it there, in spite of everything. They did so because you have primed them for Trump for more than half a century. Half a century of barely concealed appeals to racism, of fomenting fear and hatred and coaxing the worst instincts out of enough voters to gain power. Years of nurturing ― on AM radio and cable TV and the internet ― a propaganda machine that encourages ignorance, mistrust and anger.
"You have lost control of the golem you created. You made promises you knew you couldn’t keep, and your voters finally lost faith in you. Now, they’re turning on you.
"They follow a man who doesn’t even share your beliefs. You’re learning just how little those voters cared about conservatism and how very much they cared about stomping their boots on the throats of people who don’t look like them or love like them or think like them. You made this possible by making villains out of African-Americans, Latinos, LGBTQ people, the poor.
"When this is all over, you may win your own re-elections. You may retain control of Congress and of governors mansions, state legislatures, county councils and school boards all across the nation. You may sigh in relief that you survived. You may even ― and not terribly long from now ― regain the presidency and resume carrying out your agenda. Your own careers may be successful.
"But history will condemn you. History won’t forget your callowness. Because you knew."
I had been trying to write something like this, but Jeffrey says it better. So many Republicans are jumping ship, now that this latest revelation crossed some critical line of disgust. But denouncing Trump now is too little, too late to exonerate their responsibility. As Jeffrey says:
===============
"You knew. You all knew. You knew the whole time who and what Donald Trump is. . . . "You heard every terrible thing he said. You watched every inexcusable thing he did. You knew Trump is a race-baiting, xenophobic, misogynistic, authoritarian con man. You knew about his insatiable appetite for power, his bottomless need for affirmation, his dangerous impulsiveness and uncontrollable temper. You knew he was a huckster who ruined businesses and lives. You knew he debased your party, and you personally. You knew.
"You knew he waged a racist campaign against the president’s legitimacy. You knew he called immigrants rapists. You knew he advocated forbidding Muslims from American soil. You knew he said a federal judge wasn’t qualified because Mexican blood flowed through his veins. You knew he besmirched the parents of a dead soldier. You knew he mocked prisoners of war. You knew he courted white supremacists. You knew he admires dictators. You knew he incited violence. You knew he lies ― blatantly, shamelessly, ceaselessly.
"You knew all of that, and you asked Americans to elect him president anyway. Shame on you. You knew.
"Your condemnations are and have always been empty. Your sudden rush to abandon Trump ― after what’s merely the most recently uncovered manifestation of his hatred for women ― is motivated by the same venal cowardice that led you to support him in the first place.
"You knew Hillary Clinton isn’t the monstrous caricature you spent decades depicting. You knew she is ― like each and every one of you ― an ordinary politician, in all the ways that word has positive and negative connotations. You knew she would govern in a perfectly normal way.
"You knew this, but you told voters she was more dangerous than Trump. More evil. A greater threat to the republic. And this, after so many of you spent the presidential primary campaign warning the U.S. that Trump is exactly who he appears to be. But you fell in line. You knew, and you endorsed him anyway. . . .
"Your voters elevated Trump nearly to the White House, and he may yet make it there, in spite of everything. They did so because you have primed them for Trump for more than half a century. Half a century of barely concealed appeals to racism, of fomenting fear and hatred and coaxing the worst instincts out of enough voters to gain power. Years of nurturing ― on AM radio and cable TV and the internet ― a propaganda machine that encourages ignorance, mistrust and anger.
"You have lost control of the golem you created. You made promises you knew you couldn’t keep, and your voters finally lost faith in you. Now, they’re turning on you.
"They follow a man who doesn’t even share your beliefs. You’re learning just how little those voters cared about conservatism and how very much they cared about stomping their boots on the throats of people who don’t look like them or love like them or think like them. You made this possible by making villains out of African-Americans, Latinos, LGBTQ people, the poor.
"When this is all over, you may win your own re-elections. You may retain control of Congress and of governors mansions, state legislatures, county councils and school boards all across the nation. You may sigh in relief that you survived. You may even ― and not terribly long from now ― regain the presidency and resume carrying out your agenda. Your own careers may be successful.
"But history will condemn you. History won’t forget your callowness. Because you knew."
=====================
Saturday, October 8, 2016
Not surprised at Trump's vulgar talk about women.
The 2005 recording from a hot mic of Donald Trump, entertaining guys on a bus with vulgar talk about the way he can treat women now that he's a star, is not really surprising. Yes, it's shocking when you actually hear his graphic description. It's even more shocking that he wants to dismiss it as 'locker-room talk in private' that can be erased by a non-apology: "if anyone is offended."
But, really, are we surprised? Isn't this what we've been talking about when we say that he "doesn't respect women"? And no amount of his saying, "I have the greatest respect for women," can convince us otherwise. We've known who he is; it's just now a little grosser and a little more impossible not to think graphically about what amounts to sexual harassment and sexual assault. Yes, from what he said on that tape, he is describing sexual assault -- groping women sexually against their wishes. Further, although he talks about it in terms of sex, he's really describing his pleasure in power and his pride in domination.
Should he resign? Yes, he should never have been nominated. But I say make him stay on the ticket, make the Republicans own him, and then vote in the biggest landslide victory in history.
Punish him in the only way he understands: humiliating defeat.
Ralph
But, really, are we surprised? Isn't this what we've been talking about when we say that he "doesn't respect women"? And no amount of his saying, "I have the greatest respect for women," can convince us otherwise. We've known who he is; it's just now a little grosser and a little more impossible not to think graphically about what amounts to sexual harassment and sexual assault. Yes, from what he said on that tape, he is describing sexual assault -- groping women sexually against their wishes. Further, although he talks about it in terms of sex, he's really describing his pleasure in power and his pride in domination.
Should he resign? Yes, he should never have been nominated. But I say make him stay on the ticket, make the Republicans own him, and then vote in the biggest landslide victory in history.
Punish him in the only way he understands: humiliating defeat.
Ralph
Harry Reid tries to shame Republican colleagues; Obama shines despite GOP opposition
On the eve of Congress leaving on its eight-week election break, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid addressed the senate on the unprecedented obstructionism that has prevailed during the past eight years.
"President Obama is the first president to be denied a hearing on his budget. He is the first president to be denied a hearing on his Supreme Court nominee. President Obama is the first president to be asked to show his birth certificate. President Obama is the first president to face over 500 filibusters.
"The only thing Republicans have done this year was to prove that they are the party of Trump. . . . They would have us believe that Trump just fell out of the sky and somehow mysteriously became the nominee of the party. But that's not the way it is. Everything he has said, stood for, done, in this bizarre campaign . . . has filtered up from everything that has been done here in the Republican Senate. Disagreeing with everything, anything that President Obama wanted -- they filibustered even some things they agreed with, just to slow things down. Trump is no anomaly. He is the Frankenstein monster they have built. They own him."
Ralph
* * * * *
"History will look back and note that the Republican Congress treated President Obama with unprecedented disrespect. . . . A day or two after President Obama was elected the first time, Republicans met here in Washington . . . . [and agreed] that they would oppose everything President Obama tried to do. . . . "President Obama is the first president to be denied a hearing on his budget. He is the first president to be denied a hearing on his Supreme Court nominee. President Obama is the first president to be asked to show his birth certificate. President Obama is the first president to face over 500 filibusters.
"The only thing Republicans have done this year was to prove that they are the party of Trump. . . . They would have us believe that Trump just fell out of the sky and somehow mysteriously became the nominee of the party. But that's not the way it is. Everything he has said, stood for, done, in this bizarre campaign . . . has filtered up from everything that has been done here in the Republican Senate. Disagreeing with everything, anything that President Obama wanted -- they filibustered even some things they agreed with, just to slow things down. Trump is no anomaly. He is the Frankenstein monster they have built. They own him."
* * * * *
Harry Reid is right, of course, and it must be frustrating for him to be ending his career as a senator on such a sour note. On the other hand, President Obama is also ending his career as the president on a high note -- despite congressional opposition. His latest approval rating is 55%, which may not sound great; but it is when compared to other presidents' exit ratings and when you consider the odds against which he had to work , both at home and abroad.Ralph
Friday, October 7, 2016
Anti-Trump campaign for Americans living abroad
A Canadian friend sent this announcement of an effort in Vancouver to get Americans living abroad to vote against Trump.
There are millions of Americans living abroad -- up to one million of them in Canada . . . but only 12% vote. We can reach all of them with an urgent call to register and vote. . . . If you're American, come register for your overseas ballot! If you're not, join us and help reach out to as many Americans as possible."
* * * * *
"This Wednesday, Avaazers are hitting the streets of Vancouver in a giant “Stop Trump” bus to let Americans across Canada know that it's essential they register and vote. . . . We need everyone to join in to show how much Canada cares about keeping Donald Trump out of power!There are millions of Americans living abroad -- up to one million of them in Canada . . . but only 12% vote. We can reach all of them with an urgent call to register and vote. . . . If you're American, come register for your overseas ballot! If you're not, join us and help reach out to as many Americans as possible."
* * * * *
Thanks to Avaazers (whoever they are) and to my friend Alan, a good Canadian who enjoys ribbing me about our politicians.
Ralph
Climate change agreement formally adopted, making it safe from Trump's vow to "tear it up"
The Paris climate change agreement that was completed last December, with nearly 200 countries participating, had requirements under which it would be ratified. A minimum of 55 countries responsible for more than 55% of global greenhouse emissions had to formally adopt it; when that number is reached, it would then take effect in 30 days.
Nations were slowly working toward that signatory goal by getting their governments to support the ratification. Suddenly on Wednesday, the European Union moved up its vote and approved the measure. Given the number of countries the EU represents, this brought the total to 73, well beyond the 55 needed.
Thus the first really effective measure to limit global temperature rise will be in effect before the U.S. election on November 8th. It will be much more difficult for the U.S. not to live up to its agreement once it is in effect.
Why the stepped up pace and the connection with our election? Donald Trump has vowed to "tear up" the Paris agreement, and he trashes China as the big offender. So maybe the EU wanted to get this done before he could possibly do that.
It's true that China, along with the U.S., are the two biggest contributors toward human-caused temperature increase. It's also true that the U.S. and China have been cooperating on preliminary steps, and it was this progress that largely led to convening the Paris Climate Change meeting in the first place. China has in many ways become the leader in production and utilization of renewable energy equipment and production. Both China and the U.S. signed the accord in September.
For global climate change to become politicized would be a tragedy that we probably can't survive. It requires cooperation from nations that are enemies in other respects. President Obama understands this; our next president must continue this attitude and work. Donald Trump will not. Hillary Clinton will.
Ralph
Nations were slowly working toward that signatory goal by getting their governments to support the ratification. Suddenly on Wednesday, the European Union moved up its vote and approved the measure. Given the number of countries the EU represents, this brought the total to 73, well beyond the 55 needed.
Thus the first really effective measure to limit global temperature rise will be in effect before the U.S. election on November 8th. It will be much more difficult for the U.S. not to live up to its agreement once it is in effect.
Why the stepped up pace and the connection with our election? Donald Trump has vowed to "tear up" the Paris agreement, and he trashes China as the big offender. So maybe the EU wanted to get this done before he could possibly do that.
It's true that China, along with the U.S., are the two biggest contributors toward human-caused temperature increase. It's also true that the U.S. and China have been cooperating on preliminary steps, and it was this progress that largely led to convening the Paris Climate Change meeting in the first place. China has in many ways become the leader in production and utilization of renewable energy equipment and production. Both China and the U.S. signed the accord in September.
For global climate change to become politicized would be a tragedy that we probably can't survive. It requires cooperation from nations that are enemies in other respects. President Obama understands this; our next president must continue this attitude and work. Donald Trump will not. Hillary Clinton will.
Ralph
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